Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

No QE Taper Till 2Q At Earliest Based On U.S. Data

Retail sales, consumer confidence belie Fed's hoped-for improvement in growth, while PPI shows no pipeline pressure to ease disinflation concerns, Bloomberg strategist TJ Marta writes.

• Lack of improvement in growth, inflation pushes likelihood of QE taper start to 2Q at earliest; Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index -0.56, trending lower

• NOTE: Retail sales, PPI reports are for Sept., prior to govt shutdown

• Retail sales disappointed overall
• Total sales -0.1% M/m vs est. 0.0%, first negative print since Mar., 3rd consecutive decline from +0.7% June report
• Sales ex-auto, gas +0.4% vs est. +0.5%
• Ex-auto sales as-expected +0.4%
• Sales control group +0.5% vs est. +0.4%

• Consumer confidence largest drop since 2011, to 71.2 vs est. 75.0, prior 80.2
• Echoes surprise drop in U. Mich. report
• Likely due to govt shutdown, uncertainty regarding budget, debt, healthcare policy going forward

• PPI provides little expectation for end of disinflation
• Overall -0.1% Y/y vs est. +0.2%, first negative since Apr.; +0.3% Y/y vs est. +0.6%, low since 2009
• Ex-food & energy as-expected, +0.1% M/m, low end of range since 2009, 1.2% Y/y, low end of range since 2004

• NOTE: TJ Marta is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.