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Daily FX View: JPY Gains, China Not Optimistic On Economy

JPY outperformed most major FX, reversing initial losses vs EUR, USD, as global stocks turned negative; AUD mixed on strong retail sales vs concerned RBA.
• China's President Xi says not optimistic on economic environment
• USD/JPY -0.14% at 102.80, session range 102.64/103.38
• View: Cautiously bullish, possible top, rally extremely overbought on daily chart
• MACD differential down from high since Sept.
• RSI falling from high since Jan.
• Stochastics around peaks of Dec., Feb., May
• Nearing 103.74, high of May, 2013
• AUD mixed among major FX on data strength offset by RBA FX stance
• RBA says AUD "still uncomfortably high", 3Q current account -12.7b vs est. -11.5b, Oct. retail sales 0.5% m/m vs est. 0.4%, prior revised to 0.9% from 0.8%
• AUD/USD +0.12% at 0.9117, session range 0.9057/0.9131
• View: Cautiously bullish, consolidating above 0.9056 Nov. 29 low since Sept., 0.9063 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of Aug.-Oct. rally
• Daily momentum higher from oversold levels
• ZAR underperforms all major FX as 3Q current account deficit widens to 6.8% of GDP vs est. 6.0%, tied for worst since 3Q 2008
• USD/ZAR +0.93% at 10.3695, session range 10.2720/10.3822
• View: Hold longs; uptrend continues; momentum indicators show little sign overbought
• CAD mixed among major FX; USD/CAD extremely overbought
• USD/CAD +0.01% at 1.0645, session range 1.0631/1.0651
• View: Cautiously bullish; looking for top on daily chart as USD/CAD tests 1.0658 Oct. 2011 high
• Daily momentum overbought: RSI at high since early-Mar.; stochastics around highs of late-Feb., July; MACD differential high since Oct.
• NOTE: TJ Marta is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.