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Daily FX View: USD/JPY Retests Dec. High; EUR/USD Extends Rally

China data fail to provide much boost for Asia risk FX even as stocks gain.
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• China Nov. trade bal. $33.8b on exports 12.7% y/y vs est. 7.0%, CPI below est.
.• Asia FX mixed: AUD/USD -0.21% vs USD/MYR -0.78%, USD/JPY +0.17%

• AUD lower vs 20 of 22 major peers
.• AUD/USD -0.22% at 0.9082, session range 0.9070/0.9141
.• Risk this week: Employment report Wed
.• View: Bullish; higher intraday highs from Dec. 6 low;
.• Daily MACD differential, stochastics rising, RSI off lows since May
.• 1M, 25D, R/R up from low since Oct.
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• JPY weaker vs 18 of 22 major peers
.• Data disappoint, current account swing to deficit vs est. surplus, GDP 3QF revised lower
.• USD/JPY +0.17% at 103.08, session range 102.55/103.22
.• View: Neutral
.• Rising to test 103.38 Dec. 3 high since May; CFTC net non-commercial JPY position -131k, most JPY-bearish since 2007; offset by near-overbought stochastics, RSI
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• EUR mixed vs majors
.• German Oct. ind. prod. little impact, -1.2% m/m vs est. +0.7%
.• EUR/USD +0.06% at 1.3714, session range 1.3694/1.3729
.• EUR/USD view: Cautiously bullish
.• Extending rally to new high since Oct.; piercing 1.3711 Feb. 1 high
.• MACD differential, RSI, stochastics around highs associated with little direction, moves lower in FX
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• CAD lower vs 16 of 22 peers
.• USD/CAD +0.15% at 1.0656, session range 1.0632/1.0663
.• Housing starts, 08:15am, Nov., est. 195k, trending higher from Jan. 161k
.• USD/CAD view: Bearish
.• Down from 1.0707 Dec. 4 high since 2010
.• MACD differential, RSI, stochastics correcting lower from peaks
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• NOTE: TJ Marta is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.