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WHAT'S PRICED IN: RBA, BOJ Rhetoric Pose Risks; NZ Dichotomy

RBA likely to remain on hold, with risk from rhetoric about reliance on macro-prudential policy tools, shift in comments on currency; BOJ expected to keep policy unchanged, and markets will focus on Kuroda press briefing, which may include a downbeat assessment of economic

outlook, BOE seen unchanged.

• AUD: RBA est. unch. 2.50% tonight by all 26 economists surveyed; OIS market prices 2.2% chance of 25bp cut

• Policymakers are considering tighter lending rules to damp housing activity, while leaving monetary policy accommodative to support other sectors like manufacturing and services

• Some risk may tweak AUD language after recent correction toward level more in tune with RBA Stevens commentary

• OIS curve little changed out through 1Q 2016 since last week


• Prices small chance of RBA cut to 2.25% - as much as ~8% for June 2015 - through Sept. 2015

• First fully priced move, 25bp hike to 2.75%, April 2016 from Sept. 2016 last week

• Surveyed economists' consensus for first hike remains 3Q 2015

• NOTE: Labor market report due after RBA meeting, est. -30k, prior 121k, may prove of greater interest than policy meeting, Bloomberg's Richard Breslow says


• JPY: BOJ unanimously expected by economists to keep JPY270t monetary base target unchanged tonight; Kuroda briefing in focus amid debate over desirability of JPY weakness

• Most economists expect further policy easing

• Economic data continue to surprise on downside, threatening BOJ's calls for continued moderate economic recovery

• 1-Mo. OIS forward curve flatter on week by as much as 3.4bp for Sept. 2017

• 1st hike, to 0.25%, priced for 4Q last week, little changed


• GBP: BOE unanimously expected by economists to keep target rate, asset purchases unch. at 0.5%, GBP375b at this week's meeting

• Policymakers remain wary of economy's strength while envisioning eventual policy normalization


• Sonia forward curve shifts higher near term by as much as 10bps out through 3Q 2015, then shifts lower, flatter further out by as much as 29bps for Sept. 2017

• Market's first fully priced move, +25bp to 0.75%, remains 2Q 2015 vs economists projection for 1st hike in 1Q


• EUR: Eonia forward curve higher for 2Q 2015 to 3Q 2017 tenors from last week after Draghi appeared to backtrack somewhat on EU1t balance sheet expansion even as German data slows

• German factory orders disappointed earlier today, -5.7%m/m vs est. -2.5%, prior 4.9%; new print worst since Jan. 2009

• Forward market projects rates turning positive Oct. 2016 from Aug. 2016 last week

• First rate hike to 0.25% indicated for Oct. 2017 from March 2018 last week

• Next meeting Nov. 6

• CAD: OIS forward curve little changed on week

• First priced rate move, +25bp to 1.25%, Nov. 2015 from Dec. 2015 last week, pretty much in line with economists, who see first hike in 4Q 2015, unch. from last week

• Risks this week include housing starts, labor report, BOC Business Outlook

• Ivey report today 58.6 vs est. 52.5, high since Oct. 2013 and consistent with rebound since June

• Next meeting Oct. 22

• SEK: OIS 1-mo. forward curve little changed until 4Q 2015, higher through 2Q 2016, then lower

• Market prices first move, +25bp to 0.50%, for Sept. 2016 vs May 2016 last week

• Economists do not see hike before 2016

• Next meeting Oct. 28

• ILS: Swap curve lower, flatter on week

• Chance of from current 0.25% rate priced through Sept. 2015

• First fully priced move, +25bp to 0.50%, unch. from last week at Feb. 2016

• Economists more hawkish; maintain forecast of first move, +25bps for 2Q 2015

• Next meeting Oct. 27

• USD: OIS forward curve little changed along most of curve

• Forward curve prices first hike to 0.50% 3Q 2015 unch. from last week despite above-est. NFP report

• Median est. of private economists surveyed by Bloomberg keep projection for 1st hike to 0.50% at 2Q 2015

• Fed released labor market conditions index earlier today: 2.5 for Sept. from 2.00 for Aug.; in historically narrow 2.0-7.1 range since 3Q 2012

• Little data risk for remainder of week; Sept. FOMC minutes due Wednesday, plethora of Fed speakers

• Next meeting: Oct. 29

• NZD: RBNZ forecasters median est. first hike, 25bp to 3.75%, in 4Q 2014; they project another 50bp to 4.25% by 2Q 2015

• Recent NZD strength seen hurting domestic economy, RBNZ late Sept. revealed it intervened in Aug., sold largest amount of local currency in 7 years, sending NZD to 13-mo. low from July's 0.8836 YTD high

• ANZ said it is reviewing its forecast for 25bp rate hike in March

• Data risk this week from house sales, food price reports

• Next RBNZ meeting Oct. 29

• CHF: Forwards yields mostly higher

• Positive policy rate priced temporarily during 2Q 2015 and then permanently starting 3Q 2017

• 1st rate increase, 25bps to 0.50%, priced for 3Q 2019

• Next meeting Dec. 11

• NOTE: TJ Marta is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.