On August 7, 2015, I published an instblog post with my prediction of 2016 Tesla deliveries, together with my rationale for that prediction. The net prediction was 60,000 units, and this was at a time when the company was implying volumes ranging from 90,000 to 120,000, so it was quite a radical prediction at the time.
Since that time, the company has backed off its wildest claims and recently Adam Jonas (one of the company's strongest supporters) has revised his estimate downward to 70,000. So six months later, my prediction no longer seems so radical.
Along the way, that blog attracted 265 posts (as of this writing) including many predictions. It has been suggested that I tabulate those predictions in a format that is easier to read. This post provides that summary. In order to keep this reference easy to peruse, I request that comments not be added to this article. Any further discussion should continue at the original blog post.
Here are the predictions entered through Feb 5, 2016. Given that we are well into 2016 now, it is too late for further "predictions".
|Blue Sky & Sunshine||58,000||58,000||08/10/15|
|Motley Fool||75,000||or more||11/18/15|
The following individuals made comments but never committed to any specific numbers:
Please do not post comments to this blog. If you want to make further comments related to 2016 volumes, please use the original blog. If I have made any tabulation errors, please send me a private message and I will correct this blog.
Disclosure: I am/we are long TSLA.
Additional disclosure: As of this writing, the author has long positions on TSLA in the form of short sales of $125 and $130 puts dated Jan2017.