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Summary Of 2016 Forecasts

|Includes: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

On August 7, 2015, I published an instblog post with my prediction of 2016 Tesla deliveries, together with my rationale for that prediction. The net prediction was 60,000 units, and this was at a time when the company was implying volumes ranging from 90,000 to 120,000, so it was quite a radical prediction at the time.

Since that time, the company has backed off its wildest claims and recently Adam Jonas (one of the company's strongest supporters) has revised his estimate downward to 70,000. So six months later, my prediction no longer seems so radical.

Along the way, that blog attracted 265 posts (as of this writing) including many predictions. It has been suggested that I tabulate those predictions in a format that is easier to read. This post provides that summary. In order to keep this reference easy to peruse, I request that comments not be added to this article. Any further discussion should continue at the original blog post.

Here are the predictions entered through Feb 5, 2016. Given that we are well into 2016 now, it is too late for further "predictions".

Participant Low High Date
DaveWMart 55,000 60,000 08/10/15
NYer1 55,575 61,425 08/10/15
Blue Sky & Sunshine 58,000 58,000 08/10/15
Cparmerlee 60,000 60,000 08/07/15
Anton Wahlman 62,000 62,000 08/09/15
Occam's_Razor 63,175 63,175 08/10/15
CoverDrive 64,000 64,000 09/07/15
Phoonster05 65,000 65,000 08/10/15
Montana Skeptic 66,400 66,400 11/13/15
Molli 72,000 72,000 11/13/15
xyz12 74,000 74,000 08/11/15
Solucky 75,000 75,000 08/08/15
Tanel025 75,000 80,000 09/30/15
Motley Fool 75,000 or more 11/18/15
HolidayDay 77,000 77,000 01/04/16
Siddharth Dalai 77,000 82,000 01/22/16
MikeTesla 78,000 78,000 08/09/15
Illuminati Investments 80,000 80,000 09/03/15
HappyFlying 80,000 80,000 11/13/15
Tesla Corporation 83,000 93,000 11/03/15
Bbwetrust 85,000 85,000 08/09/15
r.gordon 85,000 85,000 10/19/15
Elon Musk 100,000 100,000 01/13/16
DoubleE 150,000 150,000 08/09/15

The following individuals made comments but never committed to any specific numbers:

Dave-M
anan321#
Kevin(twincities)
CommonSense
Renim
Jolinar-cz
Gwasn

Please do not post comments to this blog. If you want to make further comments related to 2016 volumes, please use the original blog. If I have made any tabulation errors, please send me a private message and I will correct this blog.

Disclosure: I am/we are long TSLA.

Additional disclosure: As of this writing, the author has long positions on TSLA in the form of short sales of $125 and $130 puts dated Jan2017.