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Are Philippine Banks Under Provisioning Loan Losses? - As Of March 31, 2014

|Includes: CKGOY, iShares MSCI Philippines ETF (EPHE)

Are Philippine Banks Under Provisioning Loan Losses? - As of March 31, 2014

 

Are Philippine banks under provisioning loan losses?

On the face of it, no.

At 2.95% as of June 2014, NPLs as a percentage of Total Loan Portfolios are at or near historic lows.

While the NPL coverage ratio is at historic highs at 140.63% as of June 2014, indicating that most banks are adequately provisioned.

But NPLs can go much higher than current levels. Over the past thirty years, NPLs as a percentage of Total Loan Portfolios averaged 8.80% for Philippine Universal and Commercial Banks. Moreover, Loan Loss Reserves (LLR) as a percentage of Total Loan Portfolio (NYSE:TLP) have averaged 4.84% for the past thirty years. As can be seen from the chart below, loan loss reserves hit a peak of 22.23% of TLP in 1986, an outlier. Without this outlier, LLR/TLP average 4.42% for the past thirty years.

As of June 2014, LLR/TLP stands at 2.95%, which is below the historical average of 4.43%, indicating that Philippine banks are underprovisioning for loan losses, given historical norms. If Philippine banks were to maintain higher loan loss provisions to conform to historical averages, bank earnings will suffer but will be better provisioned for future losses.

Now, which banks have not adequately provisioned for loan losses at their current NPL levels, which are at historic lows? Those highlighted in yellow (below 80% NPL Coverage Ratio) are prime candidates.

Philippine Banking System
NPL Coverage Ratio
March 31, 2014
       
       
Bank Loan Loss Provisions Gross NPLs NPL Coverage Ratio
PRODUCERS SAVINGS BANK CORPORATION 62,993,638.40 322,246,331.41 19.55%
PHILIPPINE RESOURCES SAVINGS BANKING 212,441,553.87 935,376,928.06 22.71%
THE REAL BANK (A THRIFT BANK) INC 656,788,213.44 2,665,857,090.78 24.64%
PROGRESS SAVINGS AND LOAN BANK INC 309,923.60 1,247,829.54 24.84%
OPPORTUNITY KAUSWAGAN BANK INC (A MICROFINANCE 19,545,709.08 73,280,074.41 26.67%
MALASIQUI PROGRESSIVE SLB, INC 6,470,762.05 23,758,506.25 27.24%
EQUICOM SAVINGS BANK INC 78,171,347.82 285,604,477.12 27.37%
LIFE SAVINGS BANK INC 2,649,806.08 9,499,865.50 27.89%
DUNGGANON BANK (A MICROFINANCE THRIFT 9,922,919.00 34,773,345.24 28.54%
METRO CEBU PUBLIC SAVINGS BANK 5,223,157.51 17,551,596.78 29.76%
QUEZON COCONUT BANK INC (A THRIFT BANK) 930,212.75 3,073,050.56 30.27%
COMSAVINGS BANK 60,506,624.39 191,305,787.91 31.63%
NORTHPOINT DEV'T BANK INC 16,405,983.73 50,239,956.29 32.66%
WEALTH DEVELOPMENT BANK CORPORATION 64,853,212.07 195,898,098.57 33.11%
CENTURY SAVINGS BANK CORPORATION 12,646,730.90 37,181,786.96 34.01%
QUEEN CITY DEVELOPMENT BANK INC OR QUEENBANK 15,538,217.16 45,631,012.38 34.05%
PACIFIC ACE SAVINGS BANK INC 2,829,328.72 8,033,232.49 35.22%
PLANTERS DEVELOPMENT BANK 1,315,210,918.76 3,573,216,336.81 36.81%
LUZON DEVELOPMENT BANK 76,211,555.66 188,268,285.57 40.48%
DUMAGUETE CITY DEV BANK INC 17,300,528.04 41,571,909.87 41.62%
MARITIME SAVINGS BANK CORPORATION 7,074,281.24 16,625,205.32 42.55%
ALLIED SAVINGS BANK 185,955,059.14 436,778,077.39 42.57%
PAMPANGA DEVELOPMENT BANK 17,325,061.24 40,645,528.06 42.62%
CITYSTATE SAVINGS BANK INC 50,682,977.13 118,808,414.32 42.66%
BUSINESS AND CONSUMERS BANK (A DB) 7,130,940.77 15,928,824.09 44.77%
LEMERY SAVINGS & LOAN BANK, INC. 5,008,824.64 10,377,162.11 48.27%
CHINA BANK SAVINGS INC 225,492,939.65 463,950,396.70 48.60%
LEGAZPI SAVINGS BANK INC 152,736,227.42 298,280,428.39 51.21%
MICROFINANCE MAXIMUM SB INC 1,434,011.34 2,711,378.39 52.89%
BANK ONE SAVINGS AND TRUST CORP. 8,261,602.53 15,304,127.53 53.98%
PENBANK INC (A PDB) (FORMERLY: PENINSULA 48,608,159.37 88,363,646.80 55.01%
FARMERS SAVINGS & LOAN BANK INC 24,218,286.37 41,176,509.30 58.82%
STERLING BANK OF ASIA INC (A SAVINGS 528,217,652.34 804,918,619.51 65.62%
WORLD PARTNERS BANK (A THRIFT BANK) 67,792,897.28 102,728,095.15 65.99%
RCBC SAVINGS BANK INC 1,333,628,847.92 1,996,786,055.85 66.79%
HIYAS BANKING CORPORATION 12,588,045.27 18,816,080.51 66.90%
EAST WEST BANKING CORP 3,116,330,203.78 4,598,059,488.49 67.77%
MAYBANK PHILIPPINES INC 876,734,789.30 1,282,710,033.55 68.35%
PRIDE STAR DEVELOPMENT BANK INC 6,090,315.48 8,882,515.92 68.57%
TONGYANG SAVINGS BANK INC 98,611,405.84 140,394,529.05 70.24%
BATAAN DEVELOPMENT BANK 15,592,398.15 21,736,980.10 71.73%
BPI GLOBE BANKO INC A SAVINGS BANK 189,492,130.37 258,776,399.64 73.23%
TOWER DEVELOPMENT BANK 8,420,489.56 11,363,447.67 74.10%
BATAAN SAVINGS AND LOAN BANK 2,137,583.98 2,838,338.85 75.31%
UNITED COCONUT PLANTERS BANK 4,310,199,030.53 5,711,874,624.13 75.46%
KOREA EXCHANGE BANK 121,587,117.18 158,745,180.26 76.59%
1ST VALLEY BANK INC A DEVELOPMENT BANK 176,196,944.07 227,611,007.05 77.41%
SAMPAGUITA SAVINGS BANK INC 21,561,538.64 27,028,077.39 79.77%
VILLAGE BANK INC (A THRIFT BANK) 17,342,200.42 21,639,438.67 80.14%
MALAYAN BANK SAVINGS AND MORT BANK INC 176,965,866.26 218,312,032.21 81.06%
THE PALAWAN BANK (PALAWAN DB) INC 11,645,752.16 14,071,641.06 82.76%
UNIVERSITY SAVINGS BANK INC 41,066,844.80 48,282,166.46 85.06%
STANDARD CHARTERED BANK 1,339,429,791.93 1,572,054,950.49 85.20%
ENTERPRISE BANK INC (A THRIFT BANK) 45,072,038.57 52,061,188.50 86.58%
PHIL POSTAL SAVINGS BANK INC 346,062,955.34 387,713,709.40 89.26%
PHILIPPINE BUSINESS BANK INC A SAVINGS 706,501,501.15 786,384,293.47 89.84%
BPI FAMILY SAVINGS BANK INC 4,211,946,971.24 4,654,699,353.00 90.49%
FIRST CONSOLIDATED BANK INC (A PDB) 435,179,565.24 471,778,749.04 92.24%
PHIL NATIONAL BANK 9,590,241,198.85 10,323,540,398.06 92.90%
PHIL BANK OF COMMUNICATIONS 1,298,732,232.42 1,369,863,596.82 94.81%
DEVELOPMENT BANK OF THE PHIL 5,715,894,730.19 5,952,217,939.24 96.03%
ROBINSONS BANK CORPORATION 439,347,712.86 450,161,983.95 97.60%
BANK OF COMMERCE 3,108,071,210.14 3,140,730,913.06 98.96%
INTER-ASIA DEVELOPMENT BANK 5,749,165.66 5,766,081.97 99.71%
HONGKONG & SHANGHAI BANKING CORP 1,188,727,905.84 1,186,140,410.67 100.22%
UNITED OVERSEAS BANK PHILIPPINES 667,735,102.81 665,448,276.65 100.34%
SECURITY BANK SAVINGS CORPORATION 638,145,183.42 603,956,346.71 105.66%
ASIA UNITED BANK CORPORATION 1,144,070,390.43 1,067,876,024.36 107.14%
PHILIPPINE VETERANS BANK 1,076,688,778.04 953,671,205.86 112.90%
RIZAL COMM'L BANKING CORP 3,561,804,559.33 3,128,741,619.03 113.84%
SUN SAVINGS BANK INC 7,995,615.69 6,955,500.63 114.95%
CORDILLERA SAVINGS BANK INC 17,486,628.42 15,135,180.92 115.54%
UNION BANK OF THE PHILS 10,735,837,873.52 9,264,016,489.58 115.89%
PHIL SAVINGS BANK 4,466,521,734.22 3,852,498,544.36 115.94%
UCPB SAVINGS BANK 412,117,873.82 353,568,135.78 116.56%
CTBC BANK (PHILIPPINES) CORP 457,401,405.13 376,072,936.98 121.63%
HSBC SAVINGS BANK(PHILS) INC 100,295,645.53 74,113,078.25 135.33%
MERCHANTS SAVINGS & LOAN ASSN INC 5,149,261.10 3,649,479.97 141.10%
LAND BANK OF THE PHILIPPINES 11,864,985,279.25 7,718,631,312.24 153.72%
BANK OF THE PHIL ISLANDS 11,724,931,399.54 7,313,979,407.47 160.31%
BDO UNIBANK INC 27,958,729,248.94 17,110,528,484.20 163.40%
CHINA BANKING CORP 6,743,511,736.83 4,085,461,652.86 165.06%
CARD SME BANK INC A THRIFT BANK 36,422,500.47 21,670,955.37 168.07%
PHIL TRUST COMPANY 1,992,376,839.36 1,146,303,968.20 173.81%
BPI DIRECT SAVINGS BANK INC 185,278,822.46 92,818,624.06 199.61%
OPTIMUM DEVELOPMENT BANK INC 44,626,617.39 18,286,790.21 244.04%
SECURITY BANK CORP 2,452,549,980.38 958,577,062.77 255.85%
AL-AMANAH ISLAMIC INVESTMENT BANK OF THE PHILS 3,147,733.68 1,092,048.97 288.24%
METROPOLITAN BANK & TCO 11,572,102,150.64 3,280,149,921.17 352.79%
CITIBANK, N.A. 7,628,556,408.94 1,337,572,880.61 570.33%
BANK OF CHINA LIMITED-MANILA BRANCH 69,701,614.59 8,660,895.91 804.79%
ANZ BANKING GROUP LTD 259,724,705.59 23,339,114.85 1112.83%
JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NATIONAL ASSN. 20,313,705.00 734,885.22 2764.20%
BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC CO LTD 160,619,067.50 4,914,155.55 3268.50%
INTERNATIONALE NEDERLANDEN GROEP BK 73,974,214.82 91.63 80731436.01%
BANK OF AMERICA N.A. 10,250,004.00 4.00 256250100.00%
BDO ELITE SAVINGS BANK INC 0.00 0.00 NA
BDO PRIVATE BANK, INC. 79,530,838.02 0.00 NA
CITIBANK SAVINGS INC 0.00 0.00 NA
CITY SAVINGS BANK 0.00 0.00 NA
DEUTSCHE BANK AG 178,284,263.40 0.00 NA
ISLA BANK(A THRIFT BANK) INC 4,004,580.33 0.00 NA
MEGA INT'L COMM'L BANK CO LTD 219,352,501.10 0.00 NA
MIZUHO BANK LTD - MANILA BRANCH 329,971,183.27 0.00 NA
THE BNK OF TOKYO-MITSUBISHI UFJ LTD 366,210,030.46 0.00 NA
Grand Total 150,204,443,224.05 119,769,678,594.46 125.41%

Source: bsp.gov.phbancofilipinofailure.blogspot.com/2014/0..." target="_blank">bancofilipinofailure.blogspot.com/2014/09/are-philippine-banks-under-provisioning.html