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Shoot First, Ask Questions Later

Japanese investors went into selling rampage today (Asia time) holding the ES, YM, and NQ hostages to the selling mania.

ES, in particular, is now a high probability 3rd wave but not extended (yet) on the Daily Chart:


There may still be a follow-thru sell-off for ES if it can't recover in tomorrow's European and US sessions.

YM also entered it's Undefined Area while NQ (surprisingly) is still an A-B-C down and still at it's C-wave Territory.

ES, YM, and NQ are now testing their Weekly 20ema Supports that should be the last line of defense for the short-term Trend Traders.  After that, the daily 200ma and Weekly 50ma are too far away to consider at this time.

My YM longs yesterday (US time) got stopped out with tiny profits.  Tonight's meltdown is either an extended 3rd wave run down or an extended 5th on the 24-hr 15min chart that has a high reading of 12,026 last Friday 3:00 pm ET.   The pullback up will determine which is the correct wavecount.  

In the absence of definitive run rate to make an intelligent decision at this moment;  I would rather wait and watch what SnP500, Dow Jones, and Compq will do tomorrow during the cash markets session.

I bought YM again tonight after midnight at 11,627 using the double-extended tracing method and the 144 tick chart:


I took this opportunity to illustrate how a massive panic selling (although not extreme in the case of YM and ES since they did not make any over-extended wave) would look like and how to catch the bottom.  The Nikkei225 went into free-fall meltdown losing 11% today.  Unfortunately, I don't have live feed of Nikkei225 intraday chart to know how it looks like in real time at different time-frames.

Again, I don't know if this over-night (presumed to have started at 3:45 pm ET) double-extended run is a 3rd or a 5th (or even a iii-rd of 3rd).  An extended  3-rd will not allow more than 61.8% retrace of the i-ii-iii-iv-v run while a 5th extended will have 70-80% probability of retracing the whole over-night run down.  As usual, I am using trailing stops to prevent incurring potential massive losses and possibly make some profits if YM fails to recover and make a rally on the daily chart.

Note:  The 3rd Extended Target Range and 5th Extended Target Range should be labeled as iii-rd and v-th Extended Target Ranges on the 144-tick chart.  Typo errors.