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At Wit's End

I can't understand what's happening now as far as wavecounting is concerned.  

There were two high probability wavecounts since March 30 for the SnP500:


Yesterday, a new consolidation range formed that made it possible the black labels on the above chart's illustration the highest probability:


Today, the Spiral MeltUp scenario becomes possible, if not probable, when SnP500 gapped up and thus was unable to create more than 9 hours consolidation range for the last pullback. 

The pullback was expected but the rally today is so anemic and is not even qualified to become another completed impulsive sub-wave and may even be considered only as part of a running type of correction.

The afternoon's meltdown resulted on Compq having a 1-2-3 with an over-extended 3rd:


The other indexes also have highly stretched 3rds and most likely will truncate their 5th downs. 

Also, the possibility of the 1-2-3-4-5 rally since March 16 having completed today becomes highly probable since SnP500 maximum allowed 5th target is 1340 and it did not break above 1340 (yet).  The presence of a stretched extended 3rd for the SnP500 during the afternoon meltdown may precede a possible Death Spiral on the 5min chart.  But 90% probability Compq will produce a truncated 5th down - or may not even be able to form a 5th down (in some cases).  Since a Spiral Meltdown seldom happens; better assume first that a truncated 5th will happen - until proven wrong.

What happened today opened up new possibilities and has a very good chance to become a game changer - due to the tiny rally (which may become a i-st wave of another i-ii-iii-iv-v rally);  and to the over-extended 3rd run down of the Compq (which may produce a Triangle at the top of the 60min chart if it produces a truncated 5th down on 5min chart) -  OR a Death Spiral on the 5min chart since SnP500 was not able to break hard above it's maximum target of 1340 for the 5th wave of a 1-2-3-4-5 rally on the 60min chart.

There are now 4 (or even 5) possible intraday scenarios for the bulls starting today.  Time will eliminate 1 or 2, if not 3, of the 4.  Thus waiting for the markets to make a definitive decision (or playing cautious) is more important right now than making big decisions for the intraday swing traders.

It is not worth making mountains out of molehills at this stage.  So I will be waiting and watching what will transpire in Monday.

I bought YM yesterday with limit buys at 12,268 and 12,264 using the fibo pullback supports of 61.8% and 79% on 5min chart before going to sleep late at night.  They triggered long before the open and made an a-b-c or a 1-2-3 mini-rally on the 15min chart.  Sold 1/2 before the Jobs Report release and holding the other half as a 'Free Trade'.

Good Luck.