We're back practically where we started in March 11, 2015 for our Swing Trade Part II:
<< Part II Buy Setup: drive.google.com/file/d/0B9dBZPXNckXYLUt...
<< March 20 Profit Taking: drive.google.com/file/d/0B9dBZPXNckXYVDJ...
>> Swing Part IIa: drive.google.com/file/d/0B9dBZPXNckXYR3d...
>> Intraday EWA: drive.google.com/file/d/0B9dBZPXNckXYZHY...
Spx is back re-testing the 100ma and was able to close above but failed to recover above the 50ma. A recovery above the 50ma should encourage daytraders to support another rally. For swing traders, upside targets are specified if a strong rally actually happens. The a-b-c might not be done yet and SnP500 might just collapse back toward the 200ma for a strong c-wave down. Or keeps consolidating at or above the 100ma in a very tight range on the daily chart for that matter. Nothing is for certain when this 3+ months of marginal higher highs consolidation range proved nothing but a great whipsawing machine for many traders and investors.
The intraday analysis was as of yesterday as heads-up for aggressive traders. A rally must happen early next week. The longer it consolidates at the lower portion the higher the probability a Spiral Meltdown is going to happen.
Part II of March 11 setup was not a bad trade. No better than Part I of Feb 3 Buy Setup when Dow Jones re-tested it's 200ma which was an excellent high-probability trade setup. But then, the intraday rally toward the March 20 high gave us plenty of time to at least book some profits.
For those who might still want to trade these markets; the rewards are definitely still big for swing traders. It's not every month or every six months that swing setups become viable. We have 2 right at first quarter and both are still viable until SnP500 breaks below March 11 bottom to invalidate Part II. But then, if the 200ma got re-tested; then that should be another potential medium-term trade in addition to that of October 17 2014 Trade Setup.
Obviously, daytraders who prefer holding positions for a few days to several days should be making tons of money if they do the timing right. Wrong timing = sorry.
For intraday traders, the potential entry was not met for the 5th and v-th. But then, there was a minor run down early this morning and the extremely reluctant run downs practically all afternoon that should have enabled some intraday entries for the more aggressive traders.
For those who are not well versed with intraday trading; a conservative approach is to buy early next week if a rally happens Monday then use the most recent low for stop loss.
If SnP500 failed to sustain a rally and just keeps messing around for another day or two toward Tuesday and Wednesday or failed to rally strongly for at least 4 days, then most likely a rally to new highs is not going to happen and lower lows should be the next expectation. Down toward the 200ma Support the one many medium-term traders are hoping for. But then hopes and wishes of many different traders are subject to the whims and wills of the general markets.
* For me: As per March 20 Instablog, I sold the NQ longs and used trailing stops for ES. The vertical meltdown stopped out the ES for some profits.
Bought some YM yesterday and using the extended or maximum run rate of 17,430 to the downside as stop loss. Then will start using trailing stops above today's low if a rally happens Monday. Perhaps buy some more on a breakout rally.
* For newbie traders: Don't try trading the futures markets specially the currencies. Emotions will almost always win that can result in major losses that can wipe out trading capital in a very short period of time. Using SPY is the better 'training' vehicle since it moves ever slowly as compared to tech stocks thus, providing ample time to study and learn slowly at first how markets work. First 3 years was the most confusing for me no matter how hard I've tried. After that, I started to understand the markets fast and with some focus instead of running around everywhere but going nowhere.