Time flies by and it seems everybody went each and every other way except those with credible plans to stay the course.
Critical Moments in Time:
>> SnP500 Kahuna Trade: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9dBZPXNckXYWW5XWjlaYWY5UU0/view?usp=sharing
Venerable Dow Jones together with benchmark SnP500 are now at their 2x Targets. A very important target for Fibonacci long-term traders.
Compq far more ignored until New-Techs showed them next future events led by the FANGAM(meddon) group. Good timing with a credible strong breakout after 17 years in the doldrums - but not necessarily 'Full Speed' ahead.
Jack Rabbit Still on the Loose:
>> DJ Medium-Term: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9dBZPXNckXYdFhIRlhTQ1J5Yk0/view
>> Spx Weekly Plan A: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9dBZPXNckXYbjdLNWxwR3VrZzQ/view
>> Spx Weekly Plan B: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9dBZPXNckXYUTlrbzhmODUwd1E/view
>> Compq Good to Go: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9dBZPXNckXYTUFIaFNkbXVLNkk/view
Those are weeks old. No need to update frequently.
We know the score.
Dow Jones remains within acceptable limits for the green subwaves i-ii-iii-iv-v but approaching limit for the v-th which must be the shortest since the iii-rd is shorter than i-st. If it exceeds maximum limit, then current analysis can be considered null-and-void and a new plan and/or strategy should be developed.
For short-term swingers, a pullback comparable to 2nd wave should happen. Previously, it lasted about 11 weeks; and hence waiting for 10 to 15 weeks conservative estimate for the 4th is not bad at all. We do that all the time for years and decades. It's our job if not our hobby - play dead for weeks and months on ends until the market finally comes to us and offer a viable entry. For me at least, two to three swings a year are more than good enough for bread-and-butter expenses.
Spx also remains within the limits of Plan A for the v-th as specified. If v-th becomes longer than iii-rd, then Plan B should be the next to monitor more closely. And possibly, if opportunity arise, be profitably traded on the short-term basis for swing traders. Daytraders may have a lot of opportunities to keep skimming profits off this seemingly insatiable rally with no more than 2.8% maximum pullback since November 2016, but that requires great skills for consistent successes. Either they keep catching up with the markets, or markets catch up against them, sooner or later.
Compq, as in always, remains the typical monkey wrench that kept surprising more analysts and traders over the years and decades. The one that short-term newbie traders like to pitch skills with and many seasoned traders would prefer not to touch with a 10-foot pole. Together with the more enigmatic Russell2000 of course, which for months now keep producing a megaphone type of expanding pattern that seems to go nowhere and had been avoided by many specially those who got whipsawed ever so often. None of the master traders I know ever try trading the R2K despite being the most qualified to do so.
>> SnP500 Intraday: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9dBZPXNckXYcFJCaFBraWxxREU/view?usp=sharing
Should be done by now or what surprise lurks behind nobody knows for sure until it becomes 20/20. Let's keep it basic 1-2-3-4-5 as the highest probability.
There are usually three (3) stages to a successful trade:
1.) Correct Entry. Expert and master traders never tired of telling us, students, that if the markets refuse to give us the right entry despite days/weeks or even months of stupendously excruciating job of fruitlessly waiting for nothing = DON'T trade. Keep it simple (KIS).
2.) Successful trades must remain that way. Hence, taking partial profits is necessary to keep it that way. Then protect the rest with either trailing stops or hard stops or both. Nobody really knows what's going to happen next. We play the Probability Game, better keep it that way.
3.) Exit is the hardest part since finding tops can be far far far, etc. far harder than finding bottoms. For the more enterprising traders, they struggle to find tops either to maximize profits or simply some bragging rights later on. Not necessary actually, also not practical for the success of hundreds to thousands of trades over the years and decades. We get tired of being perfectionist later, if not sooner. Perfection can be the enemy of good enough in most cases.
We are now at Stage Two medium- to long-term basis.
Medium-Term Traders, who took positions in Jan/Feb 2016 should take at least partial profits with those monthly 2x overhead major resistances Fibonacci Traders would take at least some profits, if not all.
For long-term traders and investors, it remains a mystery.
>> Strategic Plan A: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9dBZPXNckXYLVF2akJXd0YzbFE/view
>> Alternate Plan B: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9dBZPXNckXYbllIVWNITENHUlU/view?usp=sharing
Plan A, first published in May 2013, remains viable. Plan B if the Trump Plan of Fiscal Stimulus gets underway sooner than expected. Don't underestimate the power of Fiscal Stimulus.
Plan C was basically the original concept in Oct/Nov 2011 after buying 2xSSO as a long-term trade. But later estimated less highly probable compared to Plan A which happened more frequent - after looking at several years of daily/weekly charts of stocks and indexes for several weeks.
Nothing wrong about taking some profits tho.
I'll stick with Plan A for as long it takes.
For now, enjoy what has been accomplished for years.
- Take Profits!
Champions got to wear the crowns, drink champagne, and go home with the LOOT! Or should I say rewards? Rewards are given, loot is taken. Take it or leave it.
* Finally, monthly 2xTarget for SnP500 is practically at hand with 1 point shy of 2,485 objective. The intraday chart prompted me to sell another 5.1% of 2xSSO and some financials - right at the open for total 9.6% cash - out of the 10% objective. Good enough as I was not counting percentages at that time. Just got out as fast as I can while the intraday chart subwave i-ii-iii-iv-v for the 5th wave was pristine early in the morning.
Also bought some more TQQQ/SQQQ Pair Trades yesterday afternoon during quiet time to reduce slippages. About 5% of portfolio, Got lots of cash from trading profits hence no problem pitching in a tiny amount for the 0.5% shortfall of portfolio account. The Qs are more suitable for 3x compounding due to their high beta. I'll study the volatile FAS/FAZ and TNA/TZA later.
The SPXL/SPXU Pair Trade is not ideal since SPXL is by Direxion while SPXU is owned by Proshares resulting in 6% profits vs. 9% for UPRO/SPXU Pair vs. 15% by SnP500. I will just re-balance all of the four 3xETFs for SnP500 later on. 20% overall raised cash is still the objective if and when SnP500 rallies toward the 2,670 initial target medium-term basis (re-adjust as necessary).
Good luck and may the Force be with you.