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We Are The Champions . Again!

Summary

True champions win lots of gold medals and trophies.

Losers eat their hearts out with bronze and silver awards.

Those who did not participate got nothing to show.

Same old same old story from March 2009 bottom onward.
The upTrend is our best friend, until no more.

>> Strategic Plan A: snapshot-1203.png
>> Fiscal Stimulus Plan B: snapshot-1121.png

From February 2016 bottom this intermediate rally is now 47.50%. More than 58% rally then Plan B should be the next expectation. 

>> Balance and Symmetry Method: SnP500 Annual Chart Dec 30 2016.gif
>> Annual Gains/Losses: SP500 Index Yearly Returns

From January 1, 2017 this YTD rally is now 19.26%.

Less than the ideal 23.45% registered in 2009 which is the balanced target for that symmetrical progression of years using 2013 as the mid-point of vertical rally from 2009 bottom. Using bar-by-bar method; multi-year rally should end this year. Using percentages method, upside target becomes 4,023 which is still far from current 2,670 level.


If 2017 proved out another strong solid year, then higher probability there will be more upsides in at least a few more years. we just don't know if 2019 would become a weak or strong year. Next few years should prove the most challenging to us EW'ers as well as for long-term TA traders.


With very strong RSI for SnP500, Dow Jones and Compq on monthly charts; expectation is that the next run down should either be a major pullback or a minor correction only. Not a full-blown bear market.


Also worth mentioning is that Dow Jones, SnP500 and Compq have Holy Grail Setups on their monthly charts. Hence, the 20ema becomes a major buy support with 34ma a trailing stop if and when any or all of them make another run to the downside.

To see is to believe.

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Medium-Term Scenarios:

>> Spx Weekly Plan A: snapshot-1216.png
>> Spx Weekly Plan B: snapshot-1215.png
>> R2K Conservative EWA: The Heralds Angels Are Singing - aarc

>> Compq Conservative: snapshot-1229.png
>> Irrational Exuberance: snapshot-1230.png

>> Late Entry NYSE: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bgHq8cpRV4dYGIKtuqHOSEhxKGfcp7MG/view

They are not updated.

Plan B rallied to @2669.72 ATH today, or 28 cents short of 2,670 target.  R2K very much within kissing distance.  Compq Conservative has acceptable 5th target by now but a little short when viewed on daily chart. Very acceptable.

All weekly charts have potential Divergence Sell Signals using Fast MACD including NYSE which was added later on. Some don't have divergences using RSI. In such, they are expected to rally some more after a minor to major pullback down, or a minor correction for that matter.

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TA Matters:

>> SnP500:  https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pWzYYEeI5zry3d9AOSlvZtLlsFQlHUkj/view?usp=sharing
>> NYSE:  https://drive.google.com/file/d/1xZP7XayHQqkpBThFklX18uMU08czy6h6/view?usp=sharing

Those are some setups TA traders are looking up these days.

Very close to upside targets.

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Trading/Investment Strategies:

Except for Russell2000, all major indexes have healthy and strong Holy Grail Setups to date. Again, wait and watch is the better strategy until such time they triggered.

For the medium-term, all major indexes have potential Divergence Sell Signals on weekly chart. Hence, better to take heed and avoid over-analyzing the markets. Take as much profits as 'painfully' possible if those divergences triggered. 

Then let's see if those weekly holy grails will work or not.


Avoid being a super-greedy PIG!

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Not much can be done now but to prepare for whatever might happen next year and beyond.

>> Portfolio Reshuffle Plan:  https://drive.google.com/file/d/14rwaWDKa9Fa9BTdlJIIixYAvFHak1Sdz/view?usp=sharing

Revision #1 for my long-term portfolio.

Primary objective is to cope up vs. a cyclical correction of -25% to -40% that should last more or less 3 years before the next cycle-degree rally followed according to Strategic Plan A.

By borrowing about 26% 3xETF Pair Trades bought using excess profits last year and this year; there is no need to go full reshuffle. The 35% overall 3xPairs are good enough counterbalance vs. legacy 2x/3x ETFs. But will still keep trying to reduce the 2x/3x ETFs as much as possible.

If Plan A actually happens, then cut them down to 33% then prepare for a cyclical correction. 

Rev#1 should be able to take advantage of an 'irrational' exuberance rally if Fiscal Stimulus Program proved very successful in at least several years ahead. Hence, having a healthy load of leveraged ETFs to take advantage of Plan B is practical at the moment.

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I found getting rid of the 2x and 3x ETFs hard to achieve as they've already rallied massively and the profits taken so far have been astonishingly HUGE. They can all go bk'ed and I've got lots of profits left.

For the legacy 128 stocks bought in Feb/March 2009 and about 20 more bought through the years; many have very good dividends of more than 2.5%, some with more than 4% such as Ford, DRH and TEF. Most of the financials have 1.3% to 1.8% dividends. Hence, I am going to retain 50 or so stocks that have outperformed the SnP500 with rallies exceeding 5x - after culling them of course. Then get rid of the under-performers as they should be the ones to go down worse during bear correction.


* I raised 3% today half hour before close. Then bought VWO and add some more DIA. Objective is to raise up to 10% this month. That should leave 43% of legacy stocks and 2x/3x ETFs intact, or 10% more than the 33% ideal objective.

** to date, portfolio jumped 559% from 502% at the August 2017 high. SnP500 rallied from 287% to 300%. Beta is now 1.87x over 8.8+ years vs. previous 1.75x. The longer this rally lasts without a correction, the more volatile my portfolio will be, and the more I'll have trouble sleeping at night. Sigh!

Good luck to all Buy and Holder Retirement Portfolios.