More Nitpicking Contests

Jun. 06, 2018 5:25 PM ET73 Comments
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Contributor Since 2008


  • i hate these markets;
  • everything seems to be out of synch.
  • ,.
  • speculate, speculate, and more speculations;
  • we'll cross the bridge when we get there.

This is my 332-nd Blog Post.

After SnP500 rallied 331% from March 2009 significant bottom.  What a coincidence, teaching me some religion or what?


The Nitpicking Contestants:

>> Strategic Plan A: snapshot-18270.png

>> Fiscal Stimulus Plan B: snapshot-1121.png
>> Dow Jones Wild Card: snapshot-18271.png

>> Contingency Plan C: snapshot-18273.png

>> Weekly Complex 9-Waves: snapshot-18272.png

After more than 3 months of speculations; SnP500 is now perhaps qualified for the V-th wave rally - based on time factor, but not on initial expected price give back or percentage correction. Operative 'perhaps' since i still keep leaning on the complex 9-waves rally on weekly chart from the February 2016 bottom with 3,000 area target.  Much bigger plan A has the 4,000 area target that should last several months to a few years.

Feasibility of Fiscal Stimulus Plan B wil keep improving if SnP500 keeps rallying for several more months straight up. Until then, the best we can do is Watch and Wait. And possibly make some money on the way up if it proves a wrong analysis.

Wild card DJ is similar to Plan B. With a twist that it has to consolidate for several months. 5 to 10 months in the range of 10-20% correction ideal pre-conditions to support a blue v-th wave intermediate rally.

Obviously, not practical to expect Plan C unless and until the probability of it actually happening starts to ignite some concerns (and consternations?).

And don't even ask me about the Parabolic Scenario for Dow Jones or even the Monthly Holy Grail Setups. The DAX, the Shanghai Index, the EEM, etc. etc. etc, I've got lots of headaches already right now. 

Tough luck.


For now better to concentrate on the short-term as the major indexes seem to be getting some mojos back.

>> SnP500 Daily: snapshot-18275.png
>> Dow Jones Daily: snapshot-18276.png

>> Compq Daily: snapshot-18277.png
>> R2K Daily: snapshot-18278.png

Not sure what will happen next.  So i made some alternate EWA for the SnP500.  Just in case.  Better to avoid as many surprises as possible in the days and weeks ahead.

Dow Jones triangle scenario is still ok. Until something different happens of course.  Hopefully, we don't get whipsawed a lot more in the near future.

Compq is now on the ramp up.  Ditto for R2K.


Trading Strategies:

April 2 bottom was my first impression was a probable bottom of the expected correction from the January ATH. With an A-B-C to boot. But when it failed to immediately ramp up with a vertical rally in the following weeks, the prospect of much longer correction, and possibly
lower low bottom became very much feasible.

- Until May 23-rd:

I thought Spx would ramp up like crazy back then to support the Triangle Scenario wherein a strong vertical should happen.  Then Spx almost gave me a heart attack by collapsing three days more to 2676.82 most recent higher low bottom near 50ma support. Well,,, not exactly, as i almost always expect the markets to keep whipsawing me forever and ever till kingdom come :-{.

- No recourse, no escape.

Sometimes, the lowest bottom-side price run proved out not the exact bottom of a correction. Many times in the past, i almost always kept asking myself which ones were the correct bottoms, the lowest low or the higher low. In most cases, i ended not knowing in advance - until much much later on, in 20/20 hindsight.  This time around, i think the May 3-rd higher low bottom is the better choice to start counting the upside rally for Dow Jones Triangle Scenario.  Albeit without the initially expected vertical rally that should be at least 75% as long as the longest wave A:3.

We'll cross the bridge when we get there.


Everything seems to be out of synch with each others.

In such a situation, the best way to synchronize them would be to either rally vertically massively or to collapse vertically massively.

>> EEM Trade: snapshot-18279.png

>> FXI Trade: snapshot-18280.png 

>> Gold Trade: snapshot-18285.png

>> Stock Pick TSLA: snapshot-18281.png

Gold remains very much hampered by the rally of the stock markets  in recent days and weeks. Hence, tighter and tigher trailing stops as it might suddenly collapse.

For the rest, what i am doing now is starting to trail 1/4 to 1/3 of the paper profits just- in-case they suddenly collapse and a massive vertical meltdown happens to synchronize them into a substantial bottom run.  The rest of 2/3 to 3/4 positions are still either at their b/e hard stops or most recent low hard stops. Including SPXL and UDOW medium-term trades bought in April 2 bottom.

>> Turkey: snapshot-18282.png
>> Malaysia: snapshot-18283.png
>> Mexico: snapshot-18284.png

Already bought TUR and EWM the previous week as additional investments. Mostly for their ~ 5.6% dividends and very good discounts of 60% and 52% using potential Inverted Head and
Shoulders pattern.

I started buying 3xMEXX using 60min chart divergence buy signal. The monthly chart looks good from EW'ers' perspective. But for TA too dangerous as EWW starts to collapse below the 200ma support. Will add more if EWW recovers back up, otherwise will take some losses on this one or just hold on tight. Can't decide yet which is which.  Small positions for now, wait and watch.

That's all for now.  3+ months of suspense and counting.

GLTA --> and may the Force be with you.

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