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Judgment Calls

The Fog of War remains as thick as possible but that is where looking for either a Cow Dung or Gold can be most profitable. Once the Fog of War has cleared and the market has confirmed that the TA is correct, most of the time it is the right time to close the trade to take profits - and perhaps go the other way around for a counter-trade to the other side.

For the Bulls:

Scenario #1:

Scenario #2:

I do not have high confidence wavecount for the rally from the Dec 19 to March 19 run. Rather than be stricken by Paralysis Analysis, I prefer to make several scenarios instead. The above 2 are the highest probabilities with possible several twists for Scenario #2. A more or less straight vertical rally is expected if Scenario #1 proved right.

For those still EW challenged in counting corrective waves; this is my interpretation of the most current run down:


For the bulls, the better course of action is to wait for a grindingly slow A-B-C down after the ongoing i-ii-iii-iv-v intraday rally has completed for a buy entry.

For the Bears:


The Bear Scenario is a simple no-fuss no-muss corrective rally from the Oct 4, 2011 bottom to April 2 top. Bears can either fade the intraday i-ii-iii-iv-v rally or wait until Spx re-enters the potential Bear Flag so as to avoid being trapped just in case the intraday rally morphs into a sudden Spiral Meltup with gap ups at opening hours on many cases.


I went long buying some SSO last April 11 as indicated on my Comments on that day or the next day. Also went long YM at 12,648 and still holding half the SSO long and the YM long to today. Stop loss is a little more than 79% retrace of the ongoing intraday i-ii-iii-iv-v rally.

Good Luck. This is Judgment Calls with several choices or combination of choices. So decide either to participate to the upside, to the downside, wait some more, or do nothing. Or short the run up then trail it then go long on A-B-C pullback then trail it then see which one is going to win. There are many ways to trade the markets depending on how many Trading Strategies a trader can cook up from the available TAs. The important part is to try to minimize losses and profit will simply take care of itself in many cases.