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As Expected

The expected rally today happened and the 15min ES futs is approaching the 3rd wave extended target range of 1207 to 1221:

Expectation is 1208.75 target or where-abouts but no more than 1210.50 before a 4th wave correction should happen that should last more than a day.

The bullish scenario posted the other day seems to have a better chance of success:


Target for the v-th wave is 1214 minimum, 1223 nominal, and 1234 maximum.  IF Spx blows thru 1234 with a v-th wave run, then more likely my wavecount is wrong.

The whole extended wavecount 1-2-i-ii-iii-iv-v-3-4-5 has a potential Quick and Dirty target of 1270.

But I don't expect this rally to be a walk in the park.  There are so many headwinds ahead that may truncate the rally (not including bad news bad enought for traders and investors to start selling in panic) anytime.

One is the potential Head and Shoulders pattern on 120min chart with a measured right shoulder resistance of 1212 for the Spx.


Then there are the previous broken 2-4 testlines (for the conservative wavecount) both SnP and Compq are testing today.  Indu was able to break thru today (sigh of relief since I was long YM the other day).

Then there is an intraday 1230 fibo extension reversal type of resistance to recon with.

Then there is the 1227 to 1230 cluster of major resistances on the weekly and monthly charts illustrated last week.

Then there is the major fibo extension resistance of 1257 on the daily chart illustrated on the Bull Trap scenario last week.

And the markets are threading extended target range territory already (over-bought) but not over-extended yet.

An un-expected reversal may happen any time.

Addendum:  There should be a follow-thru rally tomorrow or a consolidation range in preparation for a Monday rally.   1214.23 is the nominal 1-2-3-4-5 target for Spx on the 15min chart.  The iv-th wave is now in progress at closing time. 

Spx 120min chart is sporting an expanding flat (the last a-b-c on daily):


1213.92 is the 120min expanding flat major resistance.