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Bear Count

If there is a Bull Count;  there is a Bear Count.

Market seldom shows it face early in the game.  

By the time the highest probability wavecount showed up, it is almost always very close to the last run and a reversal would be happening soon - thereby whipsawing those who do not know how to chase a trend.

For the bears;  this is the ongoing wavecount:


Be careful. 

Spx on 30min chart still favors the Bears since the 3rd wave down is an extended run thereby it is "supposed" to be 90% probability of making the 4th and 5th waves.  But the Bull Count last Friday mitigates that 90% probability.    The markets will decide which wavecount is correct or if none of my Bull and Bear counts is correct.

There is a potential 15ma support at 1029 with the monthly chart.  A weak support but the the  one following the monthly 200ma support at 1045 if 1045 fails to provide support.  The weekly chart has a 100ma 1023.60 potential support.

Using the weekly chart Wide Range Bar technique:


Speculative but Wide Range Bars have a high statistical probability of sustaining the momentum.  But then again;  if the WRB got retraced more than 61.8%, the bears will be trying to scamper out of their short trades.


1:54 pm ET;

Spx was able to achieve Double Top on intraday 15min chart.

Usually, a double top is a precursor to further upsides.  If the bulls can achieve a rally without reaching 1069;  then the Bull Count will start to materialize with higher degree of probability and the wavecount will be 1-2-i-ii with the iii-rd wave rally in progress unless proven wrong.

IF Spx goes down and reached or break 1069;  the Bear Count will have higher probability of success after a C-wave up has completed.

Post Mortem May 25, 5:55 am ET  :(

Double Top did not work out and instead ES went straight down during the overnight session following Europe's meltdown today. 

Target is now 1042 to 1031 for the 5th down for the cash SnP500.  Spx daily chart WRB technique has a target of 1031.30.

The daily chart double bottom support is at 1044 of Feb 5, 2010.  There is a potential fibo reversal support at 1046.  The monthly 200ma is at 1045 so 1044-46 might just work.  1023-31 next if 1044-46 range does not work.

I sold my last 1/5 FAZ at 17.76 limit sell at 5:48am.  Excellent performance for FAZ bought at 12.22 when Spx was kissing the right shoulder on the daily Head and Shoulders pattern.  Will buy FAZ again if Spx forms another Head and Shoulders on the daily.

Will try to buy ES and YM again with 1041 potential fibo reversal support on 24-hr 30min if a divergence buy on 5min shows up.  The last ES and YM buys trailing stops were taken  out overnight for small profit.