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Best of Breed

These are the most viable bullish wavecounts for the Spx:




BUT, for this wavecount to be of practical value for trading/investing purposes; Spx must break above 1131 for the A-wave up on the daily chart.  The A-wave may either be an a-b-c or a i-i-ii-iii-iv-v pattern or a double zigzag, triple zigzag, or complex combination corrective type;  after all, it is expected as an A-wave UP and not a 1st wave. 

Or, at least immediately retrace more than 61.8% of the run down from 1131 level (illustrated on 60min chart). 

That way, we will have higher confidence the initial run down that started April 26, 2010 has already completed and the B-wave (brown) or whatever additional corrective pattern needed to evolve for the weekly chart is already in progress.

As long as it is not a 1-2-3-4-5 down since a 1-2-3-4-5 down has a lot higher probability of finally breaking below the March 2009 bottom.

Critical stage now;  a weak intraday a-b-c up that fails to retrace at least 61.8% of the run down from 1131 may force Spx to go into a spiral meltdown with a nominal target of 773 for a complete 1-2-i-ii-iii-iv-v-3-4-5 run down and an extended target range of 662.55.  Once 667 bottom of March 2009 breaks down;  there is a higher probability it will keep going down with 516 the next viable fibo extension support on the monthly chart.

Friday's Job's Report may either make or break this wavecount.  I posted them so we can be ready just in case Spx suddenly rallies strongly for more than 2 weeks.  In that case, my VIX analysis more likely will be obliterated.

Addendum:    July 2 EOD

Better wait for SnP 990-995 levels or even the 975 area before making additional buy orders in this short-term oversold conditions.

The Jobs Report did not provide the catalyst for a rally today.

SnP candlebar for this week is still a continuation bar and will be very hard to reverse immediately.  Danger is if next week's turns out to be wider range bar than this week's;  then we may be headed for a catastropic meltdown.

Hopefully, the incoming Earnings Season will give enough incentive for most market participants to start buying by late next week.

I sold my ES and YM positions after the Jobs Report with small profits for pocket money. 

Also sold some Euro$ near the exact top of the run today since it is being hampered by the 38.2% fibo retrace level on the daily chart at 1.2617.  If it can't break that resistance immediately, it might be forced to try an inverted Head and Shoulders instead and head back to the 1.214 area again. 


Hopefully, it stays just below the 1.2617 for a few days then break it with significant force.  1.423 is the nominal target on the weekly chart.