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Bull Count

I am still hunting for either a rally or a sell-off.

Since we are now at a vertical run down;  a bull-count is a better choice:


A vertical drop is usually a C-wave when it appeared in the middle of nowhere (when a vertical drop happens after a 1-2-3-4-5 rally, then more likely it is an A-wave or a 1st wave down).

This is highly speculative wavecount since the chart pattern on the daily chart starting April 26 to Present can be counted several ways most of which are low probability wavecounts.

My assumption is that the US stock markets had been subjected to severe and prolonged (but not long enought) uncertainties that if something good happens, then traders and investors will be buying like crazy.  

It is very hard to suppress or contain their enthusiam in the face of the 14 months rally from March 2009 to April 2010 in just 3-4 months of consolidation range.   Once the consolidation range enters more than half as much time as the 14 months of rally;  that should be the time we have to consider that we are actually going nowhere for at least another 7 months after the first 7 months of consolidation range has happened.

However; for long-term investors who bought near the highs of 2007:   Their patience will be tested in September 2010 since Sept is the 18-month anniversary of the rally from March 2009.   The meltdown selloff consumed approx 18 months from Oct 2007 to March 2009.   If SnP500 cannot recover at least 2/3-rd of their losses from their buy prices;  they will be prone to selling those holdings once they run out of patience.  Thus September 2010 is the most dangerous month in this 35-th month old saga (or OA-drama?).