Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Bearish Engulfing Week

This week is the most bearish week so far since March 2009:


For the bears, the die has already been casted with 975 initial target and 1040 area as a potential support zone just in case Spx tries to form an inverted Head and Shoulders on the daily chart.  A 1-2-3-4-5 run down would have a nominal target of 820 and an extended target of 730.   975 is the A-B-C equal move target.

So, unless something happens "earth-shockingly good" next week;  the bears will be trying their best to short the markets on any pullback to the upside.


I bought some ES futs early this morning at 1074 to 1076.25 area using the 1-2-3-4-5 run down on the 24-hr 5min chart.   ES is a potential inverted Head and Shoulders at the bottom of the 24-hr 60min chart.  Target is 1105 if the invHnS proved successful.  Also bought some YM futs.

These are counter-trend trades just in case the bearish engulfing bar this week suddenly got reversed or at least for an a-b-c up run for the 15min chart.

Also bought some Euro$ at 1.2761 using the 2min inverted Head and Shoulders right shoulder support.   Euro$ was able to form a 1-2-3-4-5 run down on 15min from the 1.2906 with nominal target 1.2752 (target met early this morning but I decided to use a reversal pattern on 2min since the 15min can extend the run toward 1.270 if the bears have their way).  The Euro$ trade is for a 5th wave swing on the daily chart (see my previous Instablogs and Comments for Euro$ chart analysis) which I expect to be a higher low a-b-c pattern to develop for the 4th wave.  Euro$ is high-probability a-wave at 1.2752 target area or at today's low if an intraday rally follows.

All futures trades are now at b/e stop loss.

-  I will update the intraday charts if  something bullish happens and a "safer" intraday entry becomes possible.

-  I will also be trying to find "safer" entry for shorts or to buy SDS/VXX to hedge my portfolio next week.