Last summer (July 19-23, 2010) at Agora Financial’s “Assault on Enterprise” they had their annual “Whisky Bar” Panel, where they made predictions and took questions from the audience. All of the guests made their best guesstimate as to where the Dow Jones would be this time next year (July 2011). After 7 months I decided to see just how accurate the experts were and so far they’re not even close.
Barry Rithotlz made a gutsy call at the 2009 Whisky Bar and was the only one who thought the markets would move higher that year, which saw the markets rally sharply of their lows.
So far it looks like he was trying to pull a reverse longshot, predicting the markets were going to spiral down to revisit the lows of ’09. To be fair…sentiment last July was extremely negative and these predictions reflect that psychology. I remember nearly all the speakers having a bearish tint in their speeches.
Observations - Nobody wanted to be a hero and predict that the markets were actually going to go up. In the instances when somebody predicted 10-20% fall, I used the average and used 15% as the data point. 8600 seemed to be a magnet for 3 of the members of the panel. Eric Frey is in the lead if you use the Price is Right as the measuring stick..(his guess is closest), essentially predicting a flat market.