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Timing Signal is Close to Turning

|Includes: QQQ, VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH)

 I’ll start off with the positives in the markets and it begins with the Semiconductors index (SMH). At one time today it appeared as if semi’s were going to break out, but a bout of late day selling from the major indexes caused this to give up a majority of today’s gains. Tech still has a chance to bring the markets out of their recent funk, but it needs to happen soon. Watch this sector for leadership.

My timing signal remains positive, but it’s loosing momentum and could flip as early as tomorrow. I’d say it’s a 50-50 shot as to whether the markets turn around or sink, and I wouldn’t be betting big.

I’m currently sitting on the sidelines as my trading has been poor lately and that’s another sign that has me concerned. When momentum stocks don’t perform it tells me the markets are running on fumes. Maybe we just needed to rest for a few days and there hasn’t been any technical damage on the major indexes that can’t be repaired (not like silver) with a few white candles.

The head and shoulders remains in play, but with four days of selling on rising volume has this pattern in major jeopardy. If it fails the markets should fall hard and fast.

I view today’s sell-off as a vote that the markets will drop further, but we do remain in a tight channel. Watch out for that massive gap from Feb 20th.