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March 25, 2019 Prediction

|About: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY), Includes: QQQ
Summary

S&P has hit 2800 ceiling multiple times.

Economic numbers have been showing slowdowns.

Tariffs will probably not get resolved till late this year.

S&P will probably make a leg down before moving for new highs.

Stocks have been relatively stable but still unable to choose direction but so far it looks like upward movement is being staggered by the economic slowdown, political uncertainty, and tariff uncertainty.

Economic slowdown has been visible in the yield curve inversion. 10 year yield were lower than 3 months on March 22. This does not mean immediate halt to economic growth however. Most likely the yield curve was already flatter to begin with in this business cycle relative to the past due to investors looking for deflationary hedge. In addition, although unlikely, Fed can always cut the rates.

Political uncertainty comes with what is going to happen with the Mueller investigation. Trump is probably safe for now but he still has NY district investigation and Democratic lash back towards Mueller probe documentation to get over.

Tariff situation is difficult to gauge because China is not very informative and public about their views towards the talks. Trump recently sent high level executives to China for further talks but the deal will probably not progress until one or both sides become politically desperate.

Technically, the stocks have been stuck at the breaking point. S&P has rallied from December lows to about 5% off all-time highs and has been met with a major resistance at 2800. It has had triple tops at 2800 in October, November, and December and now another top in March.

If S&P cannot break the 2800 this time around the support zone is probably around 2630 where it bounced off every time before falling to December lows.

If S&P can break the resistance, the run will likely go past 2950 and pause before running higher up to all-time highs. However after the all-time highs, there will be a significant uncertainty in terms of economic outlook and 2020 presidential election so I would not be surprised if the all-time highs get cut off at 3000-3100 range.

A lot of the tech stocks such as Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Microsoft are trading at the higher end of the Bollinger bands and lower standard deviations signifying possible big move downwards.

I believe the S&P will move down to 2700 levels check for possible support, then move to make a run for 2950 unless economic outlook changes.

Disclosure: I am/we are long SPY.

Additional disclosure: I also own multiple put options for possible downward movements.