Value + Growth, dividends, Option Income, Macro
Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2008
25+ years of beating markets with less risk. MarketWatch.com's "The World's Next Great Investing Columnist" & publisher of Margin of Safety Investing.
Get my sought afterMacro view, analysis of secular trends, ETF asset allocation, my top growth & dividend stocks, as well as, option selling for making more retirement income.
I own and operate Bluemound Asset Management, LLC - a boutique registered investment advisory that manages and consults on 9 figures of wealth. I was lucky to have several mentors who managed billions of dollars, including, one who literally helped write the book on option selling. I have now managed money since the 1990s through several major market cycles.
In the past decade I was able to work on investment and real estate projects with several private equity firms, hedge funds and family offices. Since 2011, I have been widely syndicated and appear as an investing expert in the media.
Follow my work, as I try to help you make great returns with less risk.
This blog might run a little long, but I think it is important you know a few things about me, since I am asking you to become a member to my newest investment letter "Margin of Safety Investing."
First off, according to TipRanks, I am a top 10% investor, despite only seeing my free public stock picks. My long-term investment clients at my investment firm agree. Motley Fool thinks so too, although I don't keep my portfolios up there at their CAPs page very current anymore (I am kirkydu there and on Yahoo Finance).
I have been in the financial industry since college when I did internships with two successful investment firms. Out of college I sold life insurance and Medicare supplements before becoming a stockbroker after a year. Shortly after, I became an investment advisor representative.
I remember the "training" that I got for years from the industry. It wasn't good. The focus of the financial industry was and is to gather assets to charge commissions and fees on. Giving good advice is offered by only about 10% of the industry where the smart and honest overlap. Only that 10% is worth what they charge and nobody is worth "2 and 20."
I remember my grandparents and folks talking about work, money, taxes and government as I grew up. Sometimes the system does not work for you. The system is often skewed to only help those at the top already.
In the early 1980s, many of the men in my life and lives of my friends lost their jobs. I know how hard it can be sometimes to get ahead or even survive year to year.
Having a bad investment experience, coupled with losing a job can be crippling. Think of what so many went through around the "Great Recession" as they lost jobs, homes and half of their life savings - you might be in that group and are now rebuilding.
While I can make a very good six figure income if I just took one of the offers that headhunters bring to me, I don't want to reserve what I've learned the past three decades - and I've learned a lot - to a few percent of the population.
If I took one of the jobs I am approached about regularly, you would need at least a half a million dollars to even hear me in a seminar. You would need more to get an appointment. I don't want to be that type of "advisor."
[I do still take a handful of clients who do not have time to "DIY" invest, but I am devoting the majority of my time now to research and publishing, with a few hours per week of portfolio consulting and investment coaching.]
I believe that you can handle your own investments if you have just several per week to read real research and analysis - a lot of which can be found here on Seeking Alpha. I wouldn't have come to SA from MarketWatch, where I was named "the Next Great Investing Columnist," if I didn't believe here was the right place that.
If you have the time, with the exception of periodically paying for hourly financial planning or investment consulting, I think you are best served subscribing to a few reasonably priced investment letters and building an asset allocation that makes sense for you.
Because I am a "registered investment advisor" and have been writing for a big publication for six years (MarketWatch), I have very good resources and relationships. I subscribe to several of the better (expensive) professional services out there.
[One service I highly recommend for anybody looking for great ongoing global analysis is Stratfor.com. I get no compensation for saying that, it's just that good of a resource for those looking for macro and geopolitical information.]
I have several advisors that I talk to regularly, as well as, use the internet to keep in touch with some of the leaders in the industry. I try to visit company's annual meetings when I can. If you have read my spot on analysis of Exact Sciences (EXAS) here on Seeking Alpha or going back years on MarketWatch, you can have some idea of how I have been able to find several 10-baggers in my career.
My general criteria for buying a stock is that I have to think it has the potential to triple within about 7 years and has a strong likelihood of doubling in total return (dividends plus capital gains) within 3 to 5 years.
If a stock does not meet my risk/reward criteria, I will not take the equity risk of buying it. I end up ignoring most of the market. I do a lot of research on companies that I never invest in. Sometimes I find a real stinker and will bet against it though.
I offer my "quick thoughts" on companies I am researching to members of "MOSI" two or three times per week. In addition, I offer at least one investment idea per week. I also am very well trained in options and try to coach people in that direction for playing the "edges" of the market in order to hedge risk or get leverage on great ideas.
To build a portfolio asset allocation and fill it with good investments that have some potential for asymmetric upside, ala Peter Lynch's thoughts, I use to core steps. The first is how I build the asset allocation using a modified method of Warren Buffett's mentor, Benjamin Graham. The second step is to consider four core criteria in selecting investment.
For the first time, I am making available to the public two reports that I have only given so far to subscribers to my services. Here there are. Make use of these:
From my "Core 4" investing method I have built what I call the "Very Short List" of companies that I believe could lead - from the right price - over the next decade. In the past couple years (from a legacy service pre-SA), I have included well known companies like:
Apple (AAPL), Intel (INTC), Microsoft (MSFT), Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN)...
About two-thirds of the companies I cover a dividend payers like:
Abbvie (ABBV), Phillips 66 (PSX), Amgen (AMGN), STORE Capital (STOR), Lockheed Martin (LMT) and others I covered in an article titled:
20 Dividend Growth Stocks With Growth
I've also found undercovered growth or smaller companies that were hard to find good information on before they gained bigger market caps:
Exact Sciences (EXAS), Micron (MU), Nvidia (NVDA), Silver Spring Networks (SSNI), Control4 (CTRL), Encana (ECA), Paypal (PYPL)...
Periodically I also find a turnaround play that has enough upside to justify a small bet that could pay big returns:
Potash Corp (POT), SunPower (SPWR), CentruyLink (CTL) and Chesapeake Energy (CHK)...
We do have to remember that most companies that need turning around don't ever really fully turnaround enough to help investors, so I am cautious there.
I further break down the "VSL" into a "Dividend 30" group and a "Growth 30" group of companies so that people can focus where they need to in building their asset allocation. A few companies make both lists. Those are my favorites.
I also cover ETFs and believe that one ETF in particular is a great core holding. You can read about it here in:
ETF File: The Only ETF You Need To Start Investing
I make only one promise: I will honestly do the best I can to give you good information and my analysis which is based on my "Core 4" approach.
That's it. That's the best anybody can do. I will do my best for you. That has been pretty good historically. I do not promise you multi-baggers. I don't promise to give you the best stock picks. I do not promise to be perfect because nobody, especially me, is.
If my track record is predictive in any way - remember, past performance is no guarantee of future results - then I believe I can help you beat the performance of other investors at similar risk levels. If you are older, you'll take a bit less risk. If you are younger, you'll take a bit more.
The whole concept of "Margin of Safety Investing" is to manage risk. That is why I have said to sell certain stocks in recent months that are priced to perfection. You can find those articles in my profile and be very entertained by the comments disagreeing with me. To each his own.
On November 1st 2017 the rate for MOSI went from the Founders Special Rate to the normal rate of $365 per year -or - a buck a day. In 2018, as we surpass certain member milestones, the rate will rise incrementally until it reaches $599 per year, as I do not want to compromise the value of the stock and ETF picks. Ultimately, Margin of Safety Investing will be limited to only 2000 subscribers.
As a member of MOSI you will get two or three posts per week of my very liked "Quick Thoughts" series, my "Macro Monday" economic analysis released to members several hours before the free SA community, a weekly stock report (sometimes two), periodic "ETF File" strategy reports, quarterly special reports and a monthly investor call, as well as, ongoing access via our chat room.
Join Margin of Safety Investing today to get a leg up on managing risk from a top professional investor level and having a chance to make asymmetric gains that can carry your portfolio for decades.
Sign up here for "Margin of Safety Investing." Members recently made over 50% on Silver Spring Networks (SSNI), recently took big profits on current holding Exact Sciences (EXAS), added to now winning energy positions and have been finding bargained price growth in the vast tech space. I use access to multiple top research and analysis services, combined with my "Core 4 Investing Method" and insights of 25+ years of experience to find some of the best asymmetric opportunities with the least risk possible. See my top-ranked history on TipRanks and read archived articles at MarketWatch where I was named "The World's Next Great Investing Columnist."
Disclosure: I am/we are long EXAS, CTRL, SPWR, CTL, INTC, ECA.
Additional disclosure: I own a Registered Investment Advisor, however, publish separately from that entity for self-directed investors. Any information, opinions, research or thoughts presented are not specific advice as I do not have full knowledge of your circumstances. All investors ought to take special care to consider risk, as all investments carry the potential for loss. Consulting an investment advisor might be in your best interest before proceeding on any trade or investment.