The sideways channel in equity trade has contained Eur and Gbp, which make up nearly 75% of the dollar index, while Cad, Aud, Jpy, and Chf hold on to recent dollar losses. The low-volume trading environment looks as though it will finish out 2010 the way that December as a whole has traded; volatile intra-day moves without sustainable price action breaks.
Global commodity trade has responded to the Fed’s quantitative easing program with a move higher in oil, gold, and silver that look to be a hedge against Usd de-valuation rather than a demand driven play off global expansion. Time will tell whether commodity inflation will drive growth, or more realistically, whether commodity prices will reverse a little as growth expectations fail to materialize in the near-term.
Global equity trade looks to be closing out 2010 at the high of the year, after taking seven months to regain the losses generated in one week of trade in May on the S&P 500, U.S. equity trade has created a net-sum gain since January 2008 after three years of roller-coaster trade that has ended up back where it started. Volume will have to pick up dramatically if there is any chance of retail investors re-joining the equity game, after historic redemptions that have seen a move out of stocks and bonds and into cash and forex.
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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Additional disclosure: TheLFB runs an automated trading program that is constantly one side of the dollar or the other, in-line with the detail posted in the article.