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Can The Wall Street Forex Move Be Trusted?: The answer is; can we trust the equity move to hold, if so, yes, if not, no.
European markets are closing, if not mostly already closed, leaving a thin U.S. market in regard to forex flows (only 16% of global trade goes through the U.S. session), and at the same time equity markets are pushing higher. However, the major pairs in general are still very close to their opening prices, and still a long way, (outside of cad) from hitting the Usd support areas set off Friday's Highs and Lows.
Can we trust it to not only hold the majors higher; can we trust it to add to the moves and make it worth while getting in?
History says, no, definitely not, midday moves in U.S. trade cannot be trusted to hold, however, the 14:30 EDT move as NYMEX oil markets close may offer the chance to catch momentum, that builds enough to carry into the Asian flow (over 20% of forex trade flows through the Asian session).
Outside of a possible look at cad continuing the move, albeit a move that is running into support at the 20 day SMA area at 1.1550, the quadruple bottom low of last week, and does not have major pair momentum nor oil backing it, the forex markets need to show us a sustained move that all take part in, especially as the global market is now 75% closed.
Global Base: The global markets have moved equity trade higher, on the back, it would seems, of an upgrade to the financial sector. If that is all it takes, the market has just revealed the level of anxiety that has been holding it back, and the degree that automated trade can quickly change the landscape of the global market.
European equity futures have rocketed higher, up by over 3% on the day, Wall Street is higher by 2%, but as yet the oil and gold markets are not following through, nor showing any interest in moving, it would seem. This may however create a potential move that feeds off the NYMEX oil market close at 14:30 EDT, and set up forex breaks that could sustain themselves going into the Asian market open.
Mixed Up Majors: About as mixed a picture as you will see in regard to overall outlook, sentiment, momentum, and order flows. It now looks as though Wall Street could initiate some Usd selling, and reverse the Asian and European sentiment. However, the majors are a long way from all taking out their previous session Usd lows.