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Global Trade Desk- USD Signals Relative Strength

Daily Client Note

Currency and Dollar Index Review


USD Signals Relative Strength

Quick-View:
The last dollar index (DXY) (74.60) 4-hour chart signal was generated on Jun 29 11 with a drop below 75.40 that targeted 74.50, which has completed its cycle. DXY has found itself on the lower side of the 50-day SMA area at 75.00 which will now create near-term resistance to upside moves. The important aspect of recent trade is that over the last week of trade the dollar index has dropped 2.5%, while the S&P 500 has gained 7%.

Recent price action signals that either equity moves are a synthetic consequence of month-end book balancing and the beneficiary of a move from bonds to stocks as quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve finished, or it signals that the dollar index has a potential drop to test 72.50.

In the week that a raft of economic data hits the newswires that includes Non-farm payrolls from the US, interest rate statements from the Euro-zone, and ahead of July Earnings Season, the path of least resistance may be for equity indices to pull back, and the dollar index to hold 74.00 support. Major currencies have been in a two-month sideways crawl against the USD that will now see dollar buying if equities drop lower in reaction to equity business guidance reports that start in July.

Headlines:
Take care this week in regard to the impact of daily red-flag economic releases that will impact global order flows and USD valuations. This is a huge week of fundamental information flows that will undoubtedly set mid-term economic outlooks and risk valuations.

Where To Now For DXY?:
•    In a short near-term momentum cycle that is at major support
•    Downside targets will include 73.50  if S&P 500 trade closes a Weekly chart above 1355
•    Expect downside tests of 74.00 support to hold steady if S&P 500 trade cannot break above 1345
•    Low-volume ramps are hitting the equity and currency markets in 1-hour spasms which have not been able to generate sustainable mid-term moves
•    This review of technical sentiment is signaling to buy the dollar index on any downside tests of  support, and detail of such moves will be emailed directly to clients in real-time.

Dollar Index Correlations:
Daily trading range on DXY is 60 ticks, which is building in strength and indicates institutional interest in generating a support base. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (NYSE:SMA) on DXY is @  74.90, the 100-day SMA is at 75.80. DXY price action has a 36-month 75% inverse correlation to crude oil and SPY moves, and an 80% inverse correlation to euro (Eur/Usd) currency moves.

Previous Signals:
Last three months of potential currency trade signals have generated 85 trades, 56 of which have completed, that covered over 190 points (1900 pips) of net movement. The misses have come on days that instant volatility hit the global markets in reaction to breaking news headlines. Most signals have been generated from 1-hour chart algorithms. 

Trade desk Outlook:
At this stage it would seem that dollar valuations hinge on where S&P 500 markets decide to settle. Short-equities equate to long-dollars, and vice versa. The dollar is not being bought from a desire to be long the US economic growth story; it is being bought as an automated hedge against falling equity valuations.

The days of equity buying are not being easily transposed into USD selling at the same degree. Clients will be notified via real-time trade signals and market alerts when price action breaks and holds, and sets up the next dollar index trade signals. Right now, the call is for a consolidation of USD selling that could break higher if  S&P 500 futures reverse through 1320 support.

Dollar Index Technical Review:

•    Trading below the 100-day SMA area at 75.00, which was a pivotal price point area in Apr, May, and Jun 2011
•    The DXY/S&P inverse correlation is stronger when stocks are falling in value, which was seen again on the last S&P 500 ramp higher that saw minimal USD selling
•    No mid-term long signals will form on DXY until a Weekly chart closes above 76.50. No mid-term short signals will form until a Weekly chart closes below 72.50
•    Choppy and overlapping chart patterns are caught in a 4-month trading range with no clear technical signals
•    Watch for DXY buy signals from 75.50 if S&P 500 drops lower and holds under 1315 this week
•    Sell signals will hit major support at 73.50

Global Forex Order Flows:
It is generally accepted that forex trade will follow, not lead, global market momentum. Price action in global trade at this point in time is very mixed, and favoring weakness in equity and commodity trade, which may increase dollar buying momentum.

The Bank for International Settlement data below reveals that the forex market will remain contained in tight ranges from 10:00 ET until at least 20:00 ET most days, because of the weak order flows going through the US session. It also reveals why the European futures market open, from around 02:00 ET through until the Chicago reversal at 07:00 ET are the main times to expect sustainable moves. Europe dominates forex flows in the same way that the US dominates bond and equity flows.

U.K. and Euro-zone 53% (01:00 ET-11:00ET). Asia 21%. (18:00 ET-03:00 ET). U.S. 16% (07:00 ET-16:00ET). Other Regions 10%.