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Global Trade Desk- Technical Global Commodity Review

Client Note

Technical Global Commodity Review


Gold Bullion 4-Hour Chart:
Trading above the swing point areas of Apr and May 2011 that created a move higher to test 1560 resistance, as highlighted last week.
The 50-day SMA area at 1520 will create a solid base for long momentum to build from. The 100-day SMA area at 1480 will be a major support area that is unlikely to be easily broken any time soon.

No long-term long signals will form on XAU until a Weekly chart closes above 1550. No long-term short signals will form until a Weekly chart closes below 1480.

v

ABC Potential:
Choppy and overlapping trade has created the A leg from 1480 to 1550. Any B leg reversal that holds above 1520 sets up a C leg move to technically test 1590.

Call To Action:
Look to buy the next test of support at 1520. The overall outlook on bullion remains bullish, and a buy-the-dip pattern of trade has dominated for two years now. Any short positions need reduced exposure and near-term targets.

The last 4-hour chart Trade Signal was generated Jul 06 11 with a break above 1525 that targeted

Silver Bullion 4-Hour Chart
Trading in the middle of a price channel between 32.00 and 39.00 formed in May 2011, which is holding steady after the last test of support found silver bullion buyers.

The 200-day SMA area at 31.80 has created a solid base for long momentum to build from technically. The 100-day SMA area at 37.50 will be major resistance.

No mid-term long signals will form on XAG until a Weekly chart closes above 37.50. No mid-term short signals will form until a Weekly chart closes below 33.50.

b

ABC Potential:
A five-wave move lower has just completed with a test of 33.50 support. The new A leg move from 33.50 up to 36.90 could now reverse lower to form the B leg with a test of 35.30 support. The C leg may then be able to test 37.50 and subsequently 39.00.

Call To Action:
Near-term intra-day signals are all that XAG is offering until a pull-back to support at 35.20 is seen. Buy tests of support at the previous session low and sell tests of resistance at the previous session high.

These charts show that a short mixed trend is in place, but silver bullion retains the bullish long-term bias. The last 4-hour chart Trade Signal was generated Jul 06 11 with a break above 35.50 that targeted 36.50 which has completed its cycle.

WTI 4-Hour Chart:
Trading at the top of a price channel between 90.00 and 99.00 which was formed in Jun 2011. This area is the bottom of a price channel (now resistance) between 96.50 and 103.00 which was formed in May and Jun 2011.

The 200-day SMA area at 93.50 will create a solid base for long momentum to build from technically, if global fundamentals align and create oil buying sentiment. The 50-day SMA at 98.50 and 100-day SMA at 100.50 will be major resistance areas that will not be easily broken in one session.
No mid-term long signals will form on WTI until a Weekly chart closes above 100.50. No mid-term short signals will form until a Weekly chart closes below 88.50.

b

ABC Potential:
Choppy and overlapping chart patterns are caught in a 2-month trading range with no clear technical signals.

Call To Action:
Near-term intra-day signals are all that WTI is offering. Buy tests of support and sell tests of resistance at the previous 24-hour session lows and highs. These charts show that fair value has been found on WTI.

The last 4-hour chart Trade Signal was generated Jun 29 11 with a break above 96.00 that targeted 98.00 which triggered, hit targets at 98.00, and quickly reversed.