Trade Desk Client Note
Global Futures Market Review
Global Futures trade is back to last weeks close, after a headline-induced romp all over the near-term charts. Chaos reigns on an intra-day basis. Usd/Jpy created two 30-minute moves that covered two months worth of trading range, and ended up back at the break-out point as the session finished.
- Commodity Update: Gold: Sup 1645 Res 1695 Neutral 1675. Silver: Sup 31.50 Res 33.20 Neutral 32.40. Oil: Sup 83.50 Res 86.30 Neutral 85.40.
- Equity/USD Update: S&P500: Sup 1185 Res 1215 Neutral 1195. Dax: Sup 5850 Res 6090 Neutral 5950. DXY: Sup 76.60 Res 77.95. Neutral 77.50.
- Forex Update: EUR: Sup 1.3640 Res 1.3855 Neutral 1.3740. GBP: Sup 1.5600 Res 1.5810 Neutral 1.5690. JPY: Sup 76.20 Res 77.20 Neutral 76.90.
Previous Market Updates:
These are surreal trading arenas right now; price explosions hit as each session opens and closes, sending risk up and the USD down, or vice versa. The headline-dominated moves are being caught by our Trade Plan numbers, but will leave a lot of questions unanswered regarding potential follow-through, or complete reversal potential.
Traders and investors will need to keep a near-term view, bank early and often, reduce expose amounts, and treat each 8-hour session the same way that Grandpa treated a months worth of trading. In 10 weeks the S&P 500 has made 10 consecutive moves up and down that each average 10%, with a daily trading range of 3.3%. Danger signals are flashing for those who remember how Oct 2008 unfolded.
In response to the violent moves in global markets the Technical Charting Review area has been updated with new detail on Equities, Commodities, and Currencies. The Bank Holiday closed US Treasury Markets, but saw equity, commodity, and currencies bought on 60% reduced volumes. The pull-backs will create signals because what goes up on light volume tends to eventually come right back. Stair-step Higher, Elevator Down.
Max Bank (Denmark) and Proton Bank (Greece) today joined Dexia (Belgium) in being Nationalized. Markets are ignoring the insolvencies. Bank Holidays in Japan, the US, and Canada may impact momentum on Monday. The economic calendar is quiet this week. Look for quick reversal trades. 4-Hour charts on most global Futures assets classes are at major swing points. Low volume and momentum may not allow new tests of support and resistance to easily hold.
Trade Signal output was quiet last week, as expected. The Trade Plans and Technical Charting areas have trade ideas posted for clients. Mid-term 4-Hour charts are unconvincing at best in regard to indicating where momentum lies. 1-hour charts are very volatile. Cash is King outside of intra-day plays that make use of huge average daily trading ranges. Earnings season will create extra volatility. Patience is key while the 4-hour charts attempt to move out of their side-winding pattern of trade. Set a plan, or use our Trade Plans available each day, and bank early and often.