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Futures Trade Desk- Long-Term US Debt In The Rating Sights

Trade Desk Client Note

Global Futures Market Review

Long-Term US Debt In The Rating Sights

Latest Market Update: 
- Ratings agency Fitch affirmed its AAA rating on United States long-term debt, BUT revised its outlook to Negative. Dominoes are aligned in regard to credit outlooks, after a new call today for the US to stand behind Euro-zone debt. In response the low-volume end-of-day ramp in equities was not backed by credit or interest rate markets.

Near-term Outlook: 
- Commodity Update: Gold: Sup 1660 Res 1745 Neutral 1700. Silver: Sup 30.45 Res 33.05 Neutral 31.75. Oil: Sup 93.95 Res 102.65 Neutral 98.30. 

- Equity/USD Update: S&P500: Sup 1160 Res 1225 Neutral 1175. Dax: Sup 5335 Res 5950 Neutral 5645. DXY: Sup 78.50 Res 80.30. Neutral 79.40.

- Forex Update: EUR: Sup 1.3145 Res 1.3480 Neutral 1.3315. GBP: Sup 1.5350 Res 1.5670 Neutral 1.5510. JPY: Sup 78.65 Res 77.10 Neutral 77.85.

Recent Market Updates:

- The next domino is in place with the news that S&P Ratings may put France on Negative Outlook within ten days; $ positive, equity negative. Traders and investors are seeing unique trading conditions, and for those with no access to Futures market trade the wait for the cash market open may be a long time coming. 

 

- A near-term USD/CHF signal is forming with a break above 0.9265, targeting 0.9310. It is an unusual time of day, so bank early and often. 

- Moves higher in equity markets triggered near-term Trade Plan numbers, but have not impacted mid-term trend, momentum, or sentiment reads. Global Charting reviews on ES, DXY, XAU, XAG, and WTI reveal pivotal price points are being hit. Equities may struggle to hold this move.

- Month-end Window Dressing began with equity indices and risk being bought. The Trade Plans caught most of the moves. Bank early and often as test of both support and resistance are likely this week.

- The continuing state of flux regarding Austria and France downgrade threats following through will increase intra-day volatility this week. The above Support and Resistance updates on equity, commodity, and forex markets are designed for plotting potential intra-day price action reversal points on each asset class as regional trading sessions evolve. Trade Plans and Trade Signals provide further detail concerning trend, momentum, and overall market sentiment.

- The elevator ride warnings followed through, as the closing US re-reversal ended the worst Thanksgiving week of trade ever for US Stocks. Anybody trading these markets without a plan that rides volatility, but signals to get to cash when appropriate, will struggle to keep up. 

Previous Market Updates can be found within the Trader News section.