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Futures Trade Desk- Global Outlook Remains Cloudy

Trade Desk Client Note

Global Futures Market Review

Global Outlook Remains Cloudy

Latest Market Update: 
- Mid-term charts are an absolute mess in regard to trend, sentiment, momentum, and price action. Bullion looks bullish compared to others. The surge higher in risk markets last week has been fully retraced by bullion and oil, 50% retraced in EU equities, but not at all by SP500. A close below 1235 on SP500 draws in a technical test of 1225, and 1195 ahead of the Friday EU rescue plan which is weighing on equity indices.

Near-term Outlook: 
Commodity Update-
Gold: Sup 1692 Res 1746 Neutral 1720. Silver: Sup 31.15 Res 33.60 Neutral 32.35. Oil: Sup 99.75 Res 102.20 Neutral 100.95. 

Equity/USD Update-
S&P500: Sup 1238 Res 1278 Neutral 1256. Dax: Sup 5960 Res 6140 Neutral 6050. DXY: Sup 78.25 Res 79.10. Neutral 78.70.

Forex Update-
EUR: Sup 1.3295 Res 1.3485 Neutral 1.3385. GBP: Sup 1.5505 Res 1.5710 Neutral 1.5605. JPY: Sup 77.50 Res 77.95 Neutral 77.75.

Market Update Recaps:
- A buy-the-dip play may be unfolding on Gold in response to Iran war rhetoric and Bank of England "shock" regarding GBP funding deficiencies.
- Cash is King for those who are unable to quickly react to the ever-changing intra-day mood swings in risk tolerance. This is getting ugly.
- Here It Comes; The mid-session ramp lower today is courtesy of a news headline threatening Germany and 5 other EU members with a downgrade. 
- Equities, currencies, oil, bullion, and Treasury yields are all dropping. Its back to the opening prices for most asset classes, in a stair-step up/elevator down move.
- As boring as it seems, regurgitated headline news and volatile reactions continue to dominate the daily process of finding fair value. 
- SP 500 values have just gone positive for 2011 by breaking 1235, and will now face 1275 resistance. 
- Economic outlooks may weigh on this move higher, as this price point has been pivotal for risk valuations this year.
- No new signals are forming either long or short on global asset class trade. The EU Summit and global interest rate decisions will be key. 
- Last weeks surreal economic releases printed 3 standard deviations higher than expected, and then ISM Services nose-dived back to reality.

Economic Calendar:
19:30 ET Aud GDP Est 1.0%, Prev 1.2%
04:30 ET Gbp Manufacturing Production Est -0.1%, Prev 0.2%

Reduce trade size and target expectancy in the near-term.