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Futures Trade Desk- No Signs Of Santa

Trade Desk Client Note

Global Futures Market Review

No Signs Of Santa

Latest Market Update: 
- It is surreal that a market can be flat after 11.5 months of trade, and yet move 1.5% in five minutes most days, and maintain a daily trading range of 3%.

Near-term Outlook: 
Commodity Update-
Gold: Sup 1712 Res 1756 Neutral 1734. Silver: Sup 31.80 Res 33.10 Neutral 32.45. Oil: Sup 98.40 Res 102.90 Neutral 100.65. 

Equity/USD Update-
S&P500: Sup 1230 Res 1278 Neutral 1254. Dax: Sup 5805 Res 6240 Neutral 6025. DXY: Sup 78.15 Res 79.05. Neutral 78.55.

Forex Update-
EUR: Sup 1.3300 Res 1.3505 Neutral 1.3405. GBP: Sup 1.5540 Res 1.5805 Neutral 1.5675. JPY: Sup 77.50 Res 77.95 Neutral 77.75.

Economic Calendar:
07:00 ET Gbp Asset Purchase Facility Est 275B, Prev 275B
07:00 ET Gbp Official Bank Rate Est 0.50%, Prev 0.50%
07:00 ET Gbp MPC Rate Statement
07:45 ET  Eur Minimum Bid Rate Est 1.25%, Prev 1.25%
08:30 ET Eur ECB Press Conference

08:30 ET Usd Unemployment Claims Est397k, Prev 402k

Market Update Recaps:
- Traders are witnessing unique times. The reaction to economic outlooks are historically normal, but the speed of reaction to headline news is incredible. 

- Further to the signal on Gold Bullion (XAU), a close above 1750 could draw in momentum. There is daily chart SMA support at 1705 and 1725.

- The surge higher in risk markets last week in reaction to central banking intervention has been fully retraced by bullion and oil, 50% retraced in EU equities, but not at all by SP500.

- A close below 1235 on SP500 draws in a technical test of 1225, and 1195 ahead of the Friday EU rescue plan which is weighing on equity indices. 

- Mid-term charts are an absolute mess in regard to trend, sentiment, momentum, and price action. Bullion looks bullish compared to others. 

- A buy-the-dip play may be unfolding on Gold in response to Iran war rhetoric and Bank of England "shock" regarding GBP funding deficiencies.

- Cash is King for those who are unable to quickly react to the ever-changing intra-day mood swings in risk tolerance. This is getting ugly.

- Here It Comes; The mid-session ramp lower is courtesy today of another news headline, this one threatening Germany and 5 other EU members with a downgrade. 

- Equities, currencies, oil, bullion, and Treasury yields are all dropping. Its back to the opening prices for most asset classes, in a stair-step up/elevator down move.

- As boring as it seems, regurgitated headline news and volatile reactions continue to dominate the daily process of finding fair value.