The daily updates provide clients intra-day detail on the drivers of each 24-hour global trading session with snippets of timely, concise, and potentially market-moving, information.
Latest Market Update:
Earnings Season has not revealed many upside surprises, and with most S&P 500 companies reporting their numbers over the course of the next week the chances are for more of the same skin-of-the-teeth numbers that just manage to hit their mark. The sentiment surrounding fiscal imbalances and the very cloudy outlook for economic growth and expansion are weighing heavy on global asset class price action.
There is little benefit in looking past where trade will finish each session; inter-bank lending is so scarce that risk is not transferring from one regional trading session to another. The consequence is market action that balances books and locks in exposure on a daily basis, in what used to be a weekly and monthly process.
Whether a bull or bear, it makes no difference; the one-day up, one-day down pattern is not going to change anytime soon. Buying the low or selling the high of the previous session is a regular pattern, as is the strong definition between the three regional trading sessions of Asian, European, and US trade. Each is aligning towards its own economic outlook and debt scenario on a daily basis, creating a myopic forward view.
Fair value is not hard to find each day. In the current environment where fear-of-loss dominates, price action is not being allowed to travel too far without a violent pull-back. Bank early and often, and look to limit any downside collateral.
08:30 ET USD PPI. Exp 0.1% Prev 0.3%
09:00 ET USD TIC Long-Term Data. Exp 27.3B Prev 4.8B
Recent Market Updates:
- Global price action is very choppy and overlapping. Near-term views will dominate as the largest economic Black Swan event many have seen unfolds.
- In the regular pattern, Chicago Futures markets are likely to reverse overseas moves, leaving the New York session struggling for momentum.
- The German Dax opened with a gap higher straight into the 200-day SMA and October reversal area around 6400. Main markets have not followed.
- The global asset class swing points highlighted earlier are coming unglued. Risk-aversion signals are forming. Further detail to follow if equities and financials follow through and drag sentiment lower.
- S&P 500 is holding 1290, Gold 1650, Silver 30.00, Oil 100.00, EUR 1.27, 10-year notes 131.0, Dollar Index 81.00; Fair value has been found.
- Here we go again; the US session cannot hold onto overnight Futures moves nad is moving to test support on main asset classes. The pattern must be frustrating to watch for 9-to-5 investors.
- News is rampant that Greece will default ahead of a March 20 bond payment. The real news however will be Credit Default Swaps triggering.
- The current debt fiasco has avoided a Greek CDS insurance payout, but goodness knows what the reaction will be if these trigger on Mar 20.
- Remember that the 2012 pattern of trade has the US sessions reversing overseas moves, which has as much to do with inter-bank liquidity flows (fear of loss) as anything else. Take care trusting the US session to hold a move easily.
- The Bank of Canada interest rate decision and statement at 09:00 ET, along with a raft of Q4 Earnings numbers will hold traders attention.
- Risk is being bought in overnight Futures trade, with S&P 500 testing 1295, Gold at 1655, and EUR around 1.2750. All are pivotal swing point areas to monitor this week.
Bull or Bear, trader or investor, the above content reviews both sides of any situation with impunity in an effort to create fair and balanced output. Reactive markets require reactive analysis and an ability to accept changes as they happen. A headstrong opinion may be an impediment in the new-generation roller-coaster global trading arena; however, a systematic process of balanced analysis will be an asset in any environment. Information, analysis and methodologies provided are for informational purposes only, obtained from sources believed to be reliable, and should not be used as a replacement for research by an individual investor or licensed investment professional. In no event should the content of this correspondence be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee, or implication that profits or losses can be made or limited in any manner whatsoever. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.