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Fed Recovery Tone Upsets Dollar Bulls

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Currency Pair Overview:


Fed Recovery Tone Upsets Dollar Bulls

Overall, the currency market traded under the influence of the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. The dollar index saw sell orders most of the day, as traders anticipated a continued bearish statement from the Fed, as they concede that interest rates will remain low for a prolonged period. This is a sign that the spread between the interest rate of the U.S. dollar and the other major pairs could start to widen, thus fueling the carry trade scenario that has the dollar on the short side of the spread bet. Ahead, the market might follow a similar pattern, as investors prepare for the BoE and ECB interest rate meetings.

TheLFB Charting LinkDollar Index Technical View: TheLFB Member Charts 

Daily chart trend: Short. Main price points: 75.00. Looking for: Ending diagonal

Prices on the dollar index daily chart were threatening the upper line of an ending diagonal, where a break-out will confirm that the bottom is in place. In this case a retracement into the red wave IV area will be expected, while the current lows around the 75.00 zone must hold. The price action on Wednesday, as stocks moved all over the charts, will only add to the volatility in these moves.

The RSI indicator is showing a bullish divergence, which also indicates a change in trend direction.

The euro (Eur/Usd 1.4890) gained almost 200 pips during the day, the most in the last two months of trading. This happened even if the pair had a very slow overnight session. On the daily chart, the euro is trading once again above all the important moving averages, after it recently broke above the 20-day moving average.

The pound (Gbp/Usd 1.6595) stair-stepped higher on Wednesday as the dollar was sold across the board. Right now, the pound is trading just below the 1.6600 area, which has been the main swing point over the last five months of trading. A break above the 1.6600 area will mark a very important period in the pound’s price action ahead on the Bank of England rate decision.

The aussie (Aud/Usd 0.9135) started the day with a 70-pip sell-off, but since then, the pair had been moving almost exclusively higher. Earlier in the day, the aussie managed to break above a resistance trend-line that has been holding the market for two weeks, while now the pair is trading just below the 20-day moving average.

The cad (Usd/Cad 1.0610) showed strong momentum during the overnight session, but since then, the cad has failed to break below the 1.0600 area, where TheLFB S1 can also be found. The cad’s resilience to move lower comes as the BoC complained again about the strength of the Canadian dollar.

The swissy (Usd/Chf 1.0140) fell to the lowest value in a little more than a week, after the dollar index posted substantial declines. Over the last few weeks, the swissy saw a surge in momentum and trading volumes, something that allowed the Average Trading Range to reach a two month high.

The yen (Usd/Jpy 90.70) moved only higher during the first part of the day, in which the pair gained 90 pips. Since then, the yen had been struggling to break above the 91.00 area, near TheLFB S2. During the Fed’s interest rate decision, the yen managed to break briefly higher, but the move was completely retraced afterwards.

TheLFB Trade Plan of the Day is one of the six that are available to members on the major pairs each day, plus four Jpy based cross pairs, as well as S&P futures, oil, gold, and the dollar index. 

Disclosure: No positions