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Economic Fair Value Found On The Dollar A Forex Trader Portal

The global markets are moving higher, with equity moves in European trade pushing up towards the previous session highs, and U.S. futures trade on its way to also test recent high levels on the S&P at 1055. This is allowing the market to more easily sell the dollar, as U.K. and ECB rate decisions and comments are absorbed, and U.S. Weekly Jobless maintaining the plus 500k reads. 

The overall look to the 4 hour charts is still sideways, although now challenging the short side of the dollar, however oil and gold trade is very weak on Thursday, and overall participation across all markets is thin. It would be no surprise to see the lack of momentum feed through to Friday’s Non-farm Payroll report from the U.S.

The economic outlook has still to move from signs of growth to monetized expansion, and that transition is very likely to lead to stair-step/elevator trading as each Asian, European, and U.S. trading session gets underway. In forex trade we are seeing fair value being found on the dollar, and without a long break from the S&P above 1060 that holds, we cannot see how the dollar index can get much lower.