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Bi-Polar Global Markets Dominated By Earnings and Calendar Output

Earnings
The forex journey through July will receive a turbo-boost on Monday as Alcoa starts the second-quarter earnings season, with highlighted companies this week including Intel, J.P. Morgan, Google, Bank of America, Citigroup, and General Electric.

They will be followed in the weeks after by the likes of Halliburton, IBM, Texas Instruments, Goldman Sachs, Johnson and Johnson, Apple, Yahoo, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Starbucks, Amazon, American Express, and Microsoft.
In all, the next two weeks of trade will be dominated by the global risk tolerance of speculative interest in response to earnings, and earnings will be the instigator of any sustainable moves that will be seen.

 
Currency
Forex pairs will maintain the current Stocks-Up/Usd-down inverse relationship, but will likely hold in place the Stocks-down/Usd-sideways move that over the last two weeks has signaled that long-Usd mid-term positions are not being built into, but rather just held.
 
Eur/Usd has a long mid-term trend with a neutral daily chart momentum read, and will battle 25 pip moves either side of 1.2650. Gbp/Usd has a long mid-term trend with a neutral daily chart momentum read, and will battle 25 pip moves either side of 1.5100.
 
The commodity-based currencies, Aud and Cad are both showing neutral mid-term trends, and both show short-Usd daily chart momentum reads. Aussie will battle 0.8750 and Cad will battle 1.0350 as the positions that 25 pip trades may set up from.
 
Usd/Jpy and Usd/Chf, the pairs impacted by interest rate differentials, are showing very mixed near-term reads that will be updated on as trade gets underway.

 
Dollar Risk and Commodities
The dollar index (84.15) mid-term trend is still short with an oversold daily chart momentum read and price action support at the 50-day SMA at 83.70. The lows that were touched on 2nd July as support at 84.40 are now upside resistance on a commodity that may struggle to attract buyers in big enough quantities to reverse the short trend on the mid-term.
 
S/P futures trade (1072) is reflecting a global market place that is struggling to value risk at the moment. The mid-term trend is still short, which is in-line with the daily chart neutral momentum read that will struggle to break the 50-day SMA resistance area at 1095. There are buyers at 1005, and sellers at 1105, and in between there is a whole lot of intra-day volatility that is running on fumes in regard building enough energy to break and hold for more than two sessions.
 
Global commodity markets are reflecting a similar view as seen in S/P equity (risk) trade, with both oil and gold markets flat on their daily chart momentum reads, and lacking near-term speculative interest increases to get either one out of their near-term trading ranges.
 
Momentum
The overall trading outlook is that global markets will allow only limited break-outs on forex pair price action that will however favor the buying of major currencies at support, and the selling of the dollar index at resistance. This view will be maintained unless the economic calendar that will drip-feed red-flag macro-economic releases throughout this week, from all major global regions, shows a big miss on the expected numbers.
 
Forex traders will be looking for price action breaks at 2am, 7am, 11am, and 14.30pm ET during the course of this week, in-line with regional markets adjusting to earning season headlines and calendar releases. Volatility will be maintaining high levels, but a lack of speculative interest may impede price action being able to break and hold new ground. 
 
Upgraded Signal System
The current trading mandate sets exposure and expectancy levels that maintain regular lot size trades, banks a percentage early and then tightens stops so that exposure levels are contained in the near-term. Bank again mid-term, at the high/low of the previous session, and then look to leave a 30% runner that could catch the earnings/calendar volatility.
 
TheLFB signal system has implemented the final phases of an automated system that highlights pre-set criteria in the major pairs has been hit, and from Sunday will be issuing an increased number of signals than has been seen since the Half-year end book-balancing.
 
Full detail will be emailed out to clients, with this week revealing just how very important it is to have a trading support system in place to guide, confirm, and deliver information in what can sometimes be bi-polar global trading sessions. 
 


Disclosure: None