Global Markets Set Up Usd Susceptibility
The final trading session of the week has the major forex pairs at major mid-term price points that may well reveal the direction that the global market trades against the Usd in the near-term. The Dollar Index (82.80) is struggling to break up and through the 100-day Simple Moving Average (NYSE:SMA) area at 83.90, and trading patterns suggest that the path of least resistance may be down to test support at the 200-day SMA at 81.00.
The 190 ticks of drop lower would equate to around 300 pips of moves against the Usd by each of the six major pairs. The main swing points on the majors are: Eur/Usd 1.2850. Gbp/Usd 1.5250. Aud/Usd 0.8800. Usd/Cad 1.0450. Usd/Chf 1.0400. Usd/Jpy 86.50. If these price points hold against the Usd at the close of Friday trade the next leg lower on the dollar index will be in play.
Tenured traders will be watching a weekly chart close o the S/P above 1075 that will indicate that the low-volume melt-ups that have been seen recently may be sustainable, and offers secondary confirmation that the Usd will more easily be sold than bough. Add in crude oil trade holding above 77.50 and it would seem that only Jpy could potentially easily lose ground to the Usd, which leaves the major pairs with some near-term room to move.