The August pattern of equity trade holding support but unable to find break-out momentum broke down on Tuesday, with a session of trade that allowed the major pairs the chance to solidify support areas and try to move long against the Usd. It does look as though the dollar index could lose ground if equity cash trade holds the futures market pattern this week, however the low level of global participation is negating the ability of forex pairs to easily move too far.
Four-hour trend and momentum charts have very mixed equity, commodity and forex reads as traders go into a sporadic week of economic calendar releases. The attention now will be on increasing speculative interest being drawn in by increasing institutional volume levels, because that is going to be what allows price action to break and hold new ground. The sporadic 30-minute chart busts of energy that house most of the energy for each session may transpose themselves into slow and steady price action if participation levels increase.
Eur/Usd breaking and holding 1.2850 for a session draws in bids up to 1.2990 if global equity trade holds the S/P above 1085. Gbp/Usd needs to close the day above 1.5550 to attract long trades that will use the 20-Day SMA as the first upside target at 1.5650. Aud/Usd is hitting a road-block at 0.9050, but a long break will now have the 200-Day SMA acting as support at 0.8950. Usd/Cad needs to clear 1.0290 and hold a session below the 100-Day SMA. Usd/Jpy looks lost, while Usd/Chf looks bi-polar.