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A Mighty Dozen For These Turbulent Times. And Then Some!

Sep. 23, 2020 11:10 AM ET4 Comments
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SuperPac's Blog
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There are 2 news-items that drew my attention and somewhat confirmed what I have been thinking. Here are the pieces:

Amazon to be the latest Peloton challenger (NASDAQ:PTON)

Microsoft Azure launches services that compete with Twilio, Amazon (NASDAQ:MSFT)

So Amazon wants to take on Peleton and Microsoft is in Twilio's territory. These two companies (and perhaps Apple) are going to eat a lot of other tech names' lunch and dinner in the immediate years ahead. And there is not much these smaller, one or two trick ponies can do about it other than get acquired by a competitor who has more balance sheet heft. Or get slayed in due course.

MSFT, AMZN, AAPL are entrenched in societies / polities very long term via their unique eco-systems (Cloud, operating systems, apps / programs, gadgets). Consumers and enterprises are drawn in and then entrapped.

With the above in mind, and the stormy social and political times we are in (heightened risk, instability, deep political schism, social strife), I drew up a list of the Top Dozen stocks I would bet on for the very long term. 

Here it is (the ordering matters):

1. Amazon 2. Microsoft 3. Adobe 4. Google 5. Apple 6. Air Products 7. Next Era Energy 8. Abbott 9. Eli Lilly 10. Lockheed Martin 11. Roche 12. AstraZeneca

(Disclosure - I don't have any current exposure to Next Era. I am long all the other names in the dozen listed above.)

Next Era is a fine name to invest in but the valuation deters me. If the correction deepens, I would like a piece of the action.

I would over the next months / years keep adding more of these names unless something changes dramatically. 

If I had to look beyond the above dozen names I would go for the following - Salesforce, Mastercard, Visa, Vertex Pharma, Northrop Grumman, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Unilever, Nestle. Great icons.

(Disclosure - I have no current exposure to Vertex and Thermo Fisher. I am long the others in the list above.)

I look at the over-bought one / two trick ponies with smart-ass funny names like Datadog, Snowflake, Splunk etc. and I wonder how long before one of the Big Tech names steals their lunch plate from right under their face.

Analyst's Disclosure: I am/we are long AMZN.

I am not an investment guru (heaven forfend). Do your own research before transacting in securities and stocks. And always avoid snake oil sellers in the garb of investment pundits. Long several of the names already disclosed in the article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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