3:55 pm ET: Congress goes on vacation for a week and half and suddenly all's right with the world. The risk-on trade came through with a vengeance but that shouldn't have been a huge surprise given last Friday's bottoming tails. The market was temporarily oversold and was looking for any excuse to rally. The question now is whether or not this is the start of the Santa rally or merely a pause in the slide.
If market internals are any indication, today's pop may be just a temporary phenomenon. The VWAP's (a measure of institutional buying and selling) are showing lighter than expected buying pressure (considering today's big move) and heavier than expected selling pressure. The VIX took a nose-dive which is bullish on the surface but it's getting close to 15, a level that represents lower support. True, the VIX can stay at low levels for quite some time but it can also rebound. Neither one of these indicators is pointing to an imminent reversal, however, but it is something for the bulls to consider when determining position sizes (e.g., less is more).
Today's turnaround was most evident in the tech sector. Both Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) rebounded 6.8% and 3.3% respectively. This bullishness was reflected in the tech etf (NYSEARCA:XLK) which halted its recent decline by advancing 2.6%. More importantly, Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) vaulted over $18 resistance and is looking to test $19. A break above that would be a firm indication of a continued rally. In the "hope springs eternal" category, investors are buying up cellphone makers Research in Motion (RIMM) and Nokia (NYSE:NOK) perhaps in hope that their newly designed smartphone products can take a bite out of Apple's and Samsung's dominance. It's always nice to have choices.
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