A wise man once said "Its better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong"
I cant tell you how many times trading Options I have been "precisely wrong" where if I would have bought more time or waited a few days to buy I would have been fine instead of losing money to Mr Market.
Given this is just a theory but I think I have found one of the most consistent options strategies out there. It relys on the age old adage of the laws of gravity by Issac Newton
"What goes up, must come down"
This strategy involves buying leap right out of the money $DIA puts when the market is at its yearly highs. If you haven't heard of leaps they are options with a far out expiration date (8+ months). When the market is so high the $VIX is so low making your options extremely cheap compared to volatile or "uncertain" times. This works into the strategy as when the market drops or corrects the $VIX goes up making your option worth more making up for some of the time decay you may have accrued.
The reason I buy $DIA (Dow Jones) puts instead of $SPY (S&P 500) or $IWM (Russel 2000) puts is cause the Implied Volatility is lower so the options are less expensive and more profitable.
Even the bullish of the bull markets have to correct to continue their trend higher so a correction should give you what it takes to get a 100% return on your option. Don't get greedy, set your sell stops for 100% before it even gets there. If you go for just 100% every year within 11 years you will turn $1,000 into $1,000,000
Year 1 $1,000
Year 2 $2,000
Year 3 $4,000
Year 4 $8,000
Year 5 $16,000
Year 6 $32,000
Year 7 $64000
Year 8 $128,000
Year 9 $256,000
Year 10 $512,000
Year 11 $1,024,000
Make sure you set up this $1,000 account as an IRA account so you wont have to pay tax on this income. If we do return to a bear market like in 2008 you will have to reevaluate the strategy but if we continue in this bull market up trend for the next decade, this theory should work.
The real key to this strategy is being patient as you will most likely never get in at the top, but you will get in near the top, which should be close enough to get a 100% return if you buy yourself enough time. Also don't get greedy, too many people who get in the options game try to make a million the first year and lose everything, if you go for consistent 100% gains over trying to bet the farm on a 1000% gain you will be much better off.
As stated, this is just a theory, Id love to hear any constructive criticism on this theory.