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Q1 2009 GDP Report: Finding The Silver Lining

Millan L. B. Mulraine, TD Securities
"There were some obvious glimmers of hope in the report as the improvement in consumer spending (which remains the lynch-pin of U.S. economic activity) during the quarter suggests that U.S. household spending may be on the rebound."

Sung Won Sohn, Smith School of Business and Economics
"The economy was not as soft as the GDP number indicated. Businesses stopped producing goods for a while slashing inventories by a whopping $104 billion. Without the inventory runoff, the economy would have contracted by 3.4% instead of 6.1% as reported. This is good news. With lean inventories, production will be cranked up in order to restock the depleted shelves in coming months."

Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott
"Consumers came out guns a’blazin... Personal consumption expanded at a surprisingly robust 2.2%, on the combined strength of greater demand for both durable and non-durable goods."

Richard F. Moody, Forward Capital
"The details of the first-quarter report suggest a much smaller contraction, if not a modest advance, in real GDP during the second quarter."

RDQ Economics
"The declines in both final demand and nominal GDP were much less severe [than in Q4]."

Nomura Global Economics
"If consumer spending stabilizes, a stabilization in capital spending would further improve the outlook."