Better In The Long Term: Dividend Superstars Or SPY?

Feb. 14, 2013 1:47 AM ETSPY, MCD, MMM, KO, PPG, KMB, PEP, WMT, SHW, XOM, SYY, PG, SPGI, TGT, WBA, BCR, JNJ, CLX4 Comments
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Vash Patel's Blog
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Value, Growth, Momentum, Biotech

Contributor Since 2012

BS Biotechnology from Penn State University, DO Candidate at Philadelphia College of Osteopathic Medicine. 


I'm putting my thoughts out on SeekingAlpha as a public journal to keep track of my progress over time with respect to my understanding of investing. I started out with DCF and value framework, but quickly found that I was bored of it, so I dabbled in technical analysis. I was surprised to see how effective technical analysis has been on the short and medium timeframe so it's become a key part of my framework. What keeps me interested in investing now is global macro trends, so I combine that with technicals to form any new thesis now.

I was looking over a list of companies that have gone at least 25 years with a consistent growth in dividends and I was surprised by how many underperformed the S&P500 even with the dividends factored in. Just a quick experiment, I decided to make a spreadsheet of the 91 companies with their returns if one had invested $1,000 in each one 20 years ago.

As it turns out, a full 25% of the companies underperformed against the S&P500 after factoring in their dividends. Another 6.5% of the companies outperformed the S&P500 by less than 0.5% annualized. The remaining companies all returned between 8% and 18% annually. The median returns for all dividend superstars were 9.5% annually. Over 75% of the annual returns lie between 6.40% and 12.80%

I don't see any patterns in the dataset but I thought I'd provide the spreadsheet for others who may want to add in P/E values and other valuations to find other patterns. Without further ado, here it is:

 

 

Ticker Name Years of Div Growth Div Yield Price Closing Balance Annualized Return
TDS Telephone & Data Systems 38 1.92% 25.57 $705.00 -1.80%
PBI Pitney Bowes 30 10.94% 13.71 $1,713.17 2.90%
NC NACCO Industries 27 1.54% 65.02 $1,850.00 3.30%
DBD Diebold, Inc. 59 3.85% 29.9 $2,483.96 4.90%
T AT&T 28 5.08% 35.42 $2,863.76 5.70%
CTBI Community Trust Bancorp 32 3.67% 34.34 $2,963.14 5.80%
MSEX Middlesex Water Co. 40 3.78% 19.85 $3,019.84 5.90%
CWT California Water Services Group 45 3.21% 19.94 $3,047.50 6.00%
ED Consolidated Edison 38 4.34% 56.62 $3,080.00 6.10%
NWN Northwest Natural Gas 57 3.97% 45.87 $3,155.07 6.20%
VVC Vectren Corporation 53 4.39% 32.38 $3,268.88 6.40%
LEG Leggett & Platt 41 3.84% 30.24 $3,293.60 6.40%
UVV Universal Corp 41 3.60% 55.57 $3,253.10 6.40%
WGL WGL Holdings 36 3.97% 42.34 $3,294.46 6.40%
UBSI United Bankshares 39 4.75% 26.12 $3,324.58 6.50%
MGEE MGE Energy 37 2.96% 53.34 $3,526.44 6.80%
GPC Genuine Parts 56 2.81% 70.54 $3,726.03 7.10%
CTWS Connecticut Water Services 43 3.24% 29.95 $3,696.43 7.10%
RPM RPM International 38 2.82% 31.89 $3,839.98 7.30%
STR Questar Corp 33 2.87% 23.69 $3,824.32 7.30%
MO Altria Group 43 5.06% 34.78 $3,913.34 7.40%
ORI Old Republic International Corp 31 6.02% 11.8 $3,908.11 7.40%
BMS Bemis Co. 29 2.79% 37.25 $4,148.33 7.70%
LANC Lancaster Colony Corp. 50 2.08% 73.13 $4,185.01 7.80%
BKH Black Hills Corp 43 3.70% 41.05 $4,214.92 7.80%
CINF Cincinnati Financial 52 3.65% 44.71 $4,282.87 7.90%
KO Coca-Cola Co. 50 2.74% 37.21 $4,252.97 7.90%
CTAS Cintas Corporation 30 1.48% 43.38 $4,355.81 8.00%
SWK Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. 45 2.53% 77.48 $4,400.08 8.10%
PEP PepsiCo 40 3.01% 71.5 $4,423.53 8.10%
PPG PPG Industries 40 1.70% 139.11 $4,470.00 8.10%
NFG National Fuel Gas Co. 42 2.50% 58.35 $4,565.45 8.30%
KMB Kimberly-Clark 40 3.29% 89.89 $4,642.77 8.40%
NUE Nucor Corporation 39 3.10% 47.47 $4,672.72 8.40%
AWR American States Water 58 2.73% 51.96 $4,800.24 8.50%
TNC Tennant Co. 41 1.52% 47.31 $4,746.58 8.50%
PNY Piedmont Natural Gas 34 3.73% 32.18 $4,776.57 8.50%
MMM 3M 54 2.47% 102.86 $4,855.71 8.60%
GRC Gorman-Rupp 40 1.38% 29.05 $4,865.76 8.60%
EMR Emerson Electric 56 2.82% 58.1 $4,999.65 8.80%
FUL H.B. Fuller Co. 43 0.82% 41.62 $5,030.97 8.80%
APD Air Products & Chemicals 30 2.88% 88.78 $5,010.21 8.80%
CB Chubb Corp 47 1.96% 83.65 $5,165.72 9.00%
ADP Automatic Data Processing 38 2.88% 60.45 $5,280.68 9.10%
DOV Dover Corp. 57 1.96% 71.61 $5,522.35 9.30%
NDSN Nordson Corp 49 0.86% 70.14 $5,638.52 9.50%
SJW SJW Corp 45 2.64% 27.66 $5,698.10 9.50%
SYY Sysco Corp 42 3.52% 31.78 $5,685.04 9.50%
HCP HCP Inc. 27 4.44% 47.26 $5,679.47 9.50%
FRT Federal Realty Investment Trust 45 2.67% 109.18 $5,942.05 9.80%
BRC Brady Corp 27 2.13% 35.72 $6,170.94 10.00%
MKC McCormick & Co. 26 2.12% 64.09 $6,155.65 10.00%
ABM ABM Industries 45 2.66% 22.56 $6,527.38 10.30%
WMT Wal-Mart Stores 38 2.23% 71.39 $6,573.00 10.30%
CBSH Commerce Bankshares 44 2.32% 38.77 $6,613.92 10.40%
PG Procter & Gamble 56 2.94% 76.56 $6,776.78 10.50%
MHP McGraw-Hill 39 2.53% 44.33 $6,883.57 10.60%
SIAL Sigma-Aldrich Corporation 37 1.12% 76.85 $6,887.02 10.60%
XOM Exxon Mobil 30 2.57% 88.67 $7,015.36 10.70%
HRL Hormel Foods 46 1.90% 35.84 $7,355.88 11.00%
PNR Pentair Inc. 36 1.74% 52.98 $7,417.15 11.00%
VAL Valspar Corp 31 1.46% 62.94 $7,327.75 11.00%
CLX Clorox Co. 35 3.16% 81.04 $7,655.38 11.20%
ITW Illinois Tool Works 49 2.39% 63.55 $7,747.38 11.30%
VFC V.F. Corporation 40 2.28% 152.32 $7,807.82 11.30%
MCD McDonald's 36 3.28% 94 $7,871.17 11.40%
WEYS Weyco Group 31 2.95% 23.07 $7,879.77 11.40%
CLC Clarcor Inc. 48 1.05% 51.33 $8,053.18 11.50%
CL Colgate-Palmolive 49 2.30% 107.9 $8,292.00 11.70%
GWW W.W.Grainger 41 1.42% 225.62 $8,490.50 11.80%
JNJ Johnson & Johnson 50 3.22% 75.66 $8,663.96 11.90%
BCR C.R. Bard, Inc. 41 0.79% 101.45 $8,781.22 12.00%
CSL Carlisle Co. 36 1.18% 67.67 $9,067.25 12.20%
WAG Walgreen Company 37 2.65% 41.48 $9,272.50 12.30%
SCL Stepan Co. 45 1.04% 61.46 $9,578.86 12.50%
PH Parker Hannifin Corp. 53 1.79% 96.33 $9,650.18 12.60%
SHW Sherwin Williams 34 1.21% 165.45 $10,087.79 12.80%
EGN Energen Corp 30 1.22% 47.63 $10,222.99 12.90%
BF-B Brown-Forman 28 1.59% 64.11 $10,207.52 12.90%
BEN Franklin Resources 31 0.81% 142.55 $10,512.73 13.10%
MDT Medtronic, Inc. 35 2.21% 46.99 $10,632.18 13.20%
FDO Family Dollar Stores 36 1.87% 55.49 $11,156.14 13.40%
LOW Lowe's 50 1.61% 39.77 $11,529.29 13.60%
BDX Becton Dickinson 41 2.24% 88.47 $11,456.42 13.60%
RLI RLI Corp 36 1.84% 69.44 $11,508.45 13.60%
MSA Mine Safety Applications 41 2.41% 46.5 $12,002.03 13.90%
AFL Aflac 30 2.88% 48.65 $12,418.11 14.10%
TGT Target 45 2.30% 62.69 $12,748.79 14.20%
ECL Ecolab Inc. 27 1.23% 74.67 $14,473.96 15.00%
EV Eaton Vance 32 2.02% 39.51 $21,406.54 17.40%
TROW T. Rowe Price 26 1.83% 74.21 $23,352.24 17.90%
             
Average         $6,574.65 9.58%
             
Div Stocks (Total Returns)       $507,293.54 557.47%
SPY (Total Returns)       $313,950.00 345.00%

If you'd like the excel spreadsheet to work with, send me a message and I can send it to you. Also, leave me a comment if you see anything interesting that you'd like to point out!

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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