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Twenty-Something: The 20th, 20% Return, 20 Rules, 20 Hours

|About: ALPS Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP), DBC, EEM, EFA, HYG, IWM, LQD, PFF, QQQ, SPY, USO, VNQ
Summary

Tomorrow is the 20th of the month, and based on the past six month, we might have identified a scary pattern in here.

Three months of a 20% correction were followed by three months of a 20% gain. What the next three months going to look like?

20 rules regarding the market/investing you should memorize. Pure wisdom, and a free advice by Charlie Bilello.

Guess what? You have another 20 hours to join the only service that puts all of this together, while taking advantage of a huge (20%!? Nah. don't push it.) 12% discount!!!

The 20th

On September 20th 2018, the S&P 500 index reached its all-time high, at 2,940.91.

Only three months (and six days) later, at 2346.58 on December 26th 2018, we were 20.21% lower (from peak to trough), something that we haven't see in a long-long time (since early 2016)

S&P 500 since its all-time high on September 20th 2018

Tomorrow is the 20th again and what a different "20th" it is!

In three months the S&P 500 lost ~20% of its value. Then, in the following three months, the S&P 500 has added ~20% to its value. Is there a "3 months time frame, leading to a 20% move", pattern in here?...

YTD Total Returns:

  • Oil: United States Oil (USO) +27%
  • Small Caps: iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) +17%
  • Nasdaq 100: Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) +16%
  • MLPs: Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) +16%
  • REITs: Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) +14%
  • S&P 500: SPDR® S&P 500 ETF (SPY) +13%
  • EM: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) +12%
  • EAFE: iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) +11%
  • Commodities: Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) +10%
  • Preferreds: iShares Preferred&Income Securities ETF (PFF) +8%
  • HY Bonds: iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bd ETF (HYG) +7%
  • IG Bonds: iShares iBoxx $ Invmt Grade Corp Bd ETF (LQD) +4%
Chart
Data by YCharts

20% Return

Here's what we experienced from September 20th till Christmas (on a daily closing level basis):

In one word: Ouch!!!

...and here's what we experienced from Christmas till March 18th, inclusive (on a daily closing level basis):

In one word: Wow!!!

Tomorrow is the 20th again... (about) three months since the beginning of the ~+20% recovery, that was preceded by a ~-20% meltdown.

Let's hope that this upcoming "20th" is (going to be) different, and won't mark a sudden change to the very positive sentiment we are currently benefiting from.

Having said that, keep in mind the following:

Better be prepared than sorry!

20 Rules

@charliebilello wrote down some rules of thumb in regarding the markets and/or investing (in general) that I find to be interesting and important:

My favorite three rules are no. 1, 6, and 20. What are yours?

20 Hours

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Taking on water,Sailing a restless seaFrom a memory,A fantasy.The wind carriesInto white water,Far from the islands.Don't you know you'reNever going to get to France.

Source: Mike Oldfield - "To France"

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