It's Hard To Please Everyone, All The Time; Timing Is Everything!
Macro and Micro, Value and Growth, Long/Short Equity, Income (DGI, Bonds, Pref.'s)
Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2014
On a strictly formal note...
The Fortune Teller ("TFT") is a well-known contributor on Seeking Alpha ("SA"), and a top blogger according to TipRanks, with over 30 years of deep and direct market experience.
TFT is the leading moderator of two services on SA: Wheel of Fortune and Macro Trading Factory (led by TFT's "mirage identity" called The Macro Teller, or "TMT")
TFT is an account that represents a business which is mostly focuses on portfolio- and asset- management. The business is run by two principles that (among the two of them) hold BAs in Accounting & Economics, and Compute Sciences, as well as MBAs. One of the two is also a licensed CPA (although many years have gone by since he was practicing), and has/had been a licensed investment adviser in various countries, including the US (Series 7 & 66).
On a combined basis, the two principles lived and worked for at least three years in three other-different countries/continents, holding senior-managerial positions across various industries/activities:
On one hand/principal, IT, R&D, Cloud, AI/ML, Security/Fraud, Scalability, Enterprise Software, Agile Methodologies, and Mobile Applications.
On the other hand/principal, Accounting, Banking, Wealth Management, Portfolio Management and Fund Management.
Currently, they run a business which is mainly focusing on active portfolio/fund/asset management as well as providing consulting/advisory services. The business, co-founded in 2011, is also occasionally getting involved in real estate and early-stage (start-up) investments.
The people who work in and for this business are an integral and essential part of the services that we offer on SA Marketplace platform: Wheel of Fortune, and Market Trading Factory. While TFT (or TMT for that matter) is the single "face" behind these services, it's important for readers/subscribers to know that what they get is not a "one-man-show" rather the end-result of an ongoing, relentless, team effort.
We strongly believe that successful investors must have/perform Discipline, Patience, and Consistency (or "DCP"). We adhere to those rigorously.
The contributor RoseNose is both a contributing and promoting author for Macro Trading Factory.
On a more personal note...
We're advising and consulting to private individuals, mostly (U)HNWI that we had been serving through many years of working within the private banking, wealth management and asset management arenas. This activity focuses on the long run and it's mostly based on a Buy & Hold strategy.
Risk management is part of our DNA and while we normally take LONG-naked positions, we play defense too, by occasionally hedging our positions, in order to protect the downside.
We cover all asset-classes by mostly focusing on cash cows and high dividend paying "machines" that may generate high (total) returns: Interest-sensitive, income-generating, instruments, e.g. Bonds, REITs, BDCs, Preferred Shares, MLPs, etc. combined with a variety of high-risk, growth and value stocks.
We believe in, and invest for, the long run but we're very minded of the short run too. While it's possible to make a massive-quick "kill", here and there, good things usually come in small packages (and over time); so do returns. Therefore, we (hope but) don't expect our investments to double in value over a short period of time. We do, however, aim at outperforming the S&P 500, on a risk adjusted basis, and to deliver positive returns on an absolute basis, i.e. regardless of markets' returns and directions.
Note: "Aim" doesn't equate guarantee!!! We can't, and never will, promise a positive return!!! Everything that we do is on a "best effort" basis, without any assurance that the actual results would meet our good intentions.
Timing is Everything! While investors can't time the market, we believe that this applies only to the long term. In the short-term (a couple of months) one can and should pick the right moment and the right entry point, based on his subjective-personal preferences, risk aversion and goals. Long-term, strategy/macro, investment decisions can't be timed while short-term, implementation/micro, investment decision, can!
When it comes to investments and trading we believe that the most important virtues are healthy common sense, general wisdom, sufficient research, vast experience, strive for excellence, ongoing willingness to learn, minimum ego, maximum patience, ability to withstand (enormous) pressure/s, strict discipline and a lot of luck!...
- Which commodity is (or has been) the better one to hold - copper or gold?
- Has gold performed better than stocks over the past year?. decade?. over a longer period than that?.
- As we all know, long ago: Timing is Everything! So it was, so it is, so it will be.
- Some things never change. Other do. Join Wheel of Fortune to find more how to prepare & adjust ahead of 2021.
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Copper topped $8,000 a ton for the first time in more than seven years.
The world’s biggest copper miners are enjoying a rare bonanza, helped along by fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
Copper stockpiles tracked by leading exchanges have dwindled to the lowest level in six years.
You want to piss off gold bugs? There you go.
Past 4-month performance of Copper vs. Gold:
Gold bugs would claim (and rightly so) that if you compare gold prices to copper prices over any longer-range, gold is the ultimate winner.
There's something to this claim, we must admit.
Therefore, how about we let copper go, and put the S&P 500 against gold. or example, here's how the two (GLD and SPX) have performed YTD:
Gold is clearly winnimg.
But then again, many investors would claim this to be not only too short of a term, but a classic arbitrary.
Ok then... How about we stretch the comparison to cover the past 10 years (long-enough, isn't it?):
Over the past decade, SPX has outperformed gold big time.
Can we call it a day now?... Not yet, you say?
I see that it would be hard/impossible to please you, guys, so let's try it one more time with the most non-arbitrary we can think of: GLD's inception date.
Whether you like it or not, we technically can't go back more than that...
Since its inception date, GLD has outperformed the SPX.
Take it or leave it - it is what it is. You choose, you snooze, you (might) lose. That's part of the investing game. Always been, always will be.
Picking a certain date as a starting point would always be seen/suspect as an arbitrary choice. It's impossible to please everyone all the time, but one can - and should - always try.
This article is part of a very long article discussing Commodities (exc. Precious Metals) & Currencies that we've published to our subscribers today, part of our '2021 Game Plan' series that started last week and will run until the end of this week.
As we all know: Timing is Everything!
Tesla (TSLA) has just joined the prestige S&P 500 index (SPY), and you can join the even more-prestigious 'index' - Wheel of FORTUNE.
The guys at Charles Schwab also suggest you should closely watch the moves of our Wheels as we head into 2021...
You Don't Want to Miss Out on our Holidays' Sale and the '2021 Game Plan' Series that Started Last week:
(At Least) Three Additional Parts are Due Before Year-End! Join Now to See Our 2021 Investment Strategy!!
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