What To Hold Over The Next 10 Days?
Macro and Micro, Value and Growth, Long/Short Equity, Income (DGI, Bonds, Pref.'s)
Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2014
On a strictly formal note...
The Fortune Teller ("TFT") is a well-known contributor on Seeking Alpha ("SA"), and a top blogger according to TipRanks, with over 30 years of deep and direct market experience.
TFT is the leading moderator of two services on SA: Wheel of Fortune and Macro Trading Factory (led by TFT's "mirage identity" called The Macro Teller, or "TMT")
TFT is an account that represents a business which is mostly focuses on portfolio- and asset- management. The business is run by two principles that (among the two of them) hold BAs in Accounting & Economics, and Compute Sciences, as well as MBAs. One of the two is also a licensed CPA (although many years have gone by since he was practicing), and has/had been a licensed investment adviser in various countries, including the US (Series 7 & 66).
On a combined basis, the two principles lived and worked for at least three years in three other-different countries/continents, holding senior-managerial positions across various industries/activities:
On one hand/principal, IT, R&D, Cloud, AI/ML, Security/Fraud, Scalability, Enterprise Software, Agile Methodologies, and Mobile Applications.
On the other hand/principal, Accounting, Banking, Wealth Management, Portfolio Management and Fund Management.
Currently, they run a business which is mainly focusing on active portfolio/fund/asset management as well as providing consulting/advisory services. The business, co-founded in 2011, is also occasionally getting involved in real estate and early-stage (start-up) investments.
The people who work in and for this business are an integral and essential part of the services that we offer on SA Marketplace platform: Wheel of Fortune, and Market Trading Factory. While TFT (or TMT for that matter) is the single "face" behind these services, it's important for readers/subscribers to know that what they get is not a "one-man-show" rather the end-result of an ongoing, relentless, team effort.
We strongly believe that successful investors must have/perform Discipline, Patience, and Consistency (or "DCP"). We adhere to those rigorously.
The contributor RoseNose is both a contributing and promoting author for Macro Trading Factory.
On a more personal note...
We're advising and consulting to private individuals, mostly (U)HNWI that we had been serving through many years of working within the private banking, wealth management and asset management arenas. This activity focuses on the long run and it's mostly based on a Buy & Hold strategy.
Risk management is part of our DNA and while we normally take LONG-naked positions, we play defense too, by occasionally hedging our positions, in order to protect the downside.
We cover all asset-classes by mostly focusing on cash cows and high dividend paying "machines" that may generate high (total) returns: Interest-sensitive, income-generating, instruments, e.g. Bonds, REITs, BDCs, Preferred Shares, MLPs, etc. combined with a variety of high-risk, growth and value stocks.
We believe in, and invest for, the long run but we're very minded of the short run too. While it's possible to make a massive-quick "kill", here and there, good things usually come in small packages (and over time); so do returns. Therefore, we (hope but) don't expect our investments to double in value over a short period of time. We do, however, aim at outperforming the S&P 500, on a risk adjusted basis, and to deliver positive returns on an absolute basis, i.e. regardless of markets' returns and directions.
Note: "Aim" doesn't equate guarantee!!! We can't, and never will, promise a positive return!!! Everything that we do is on a "best effort" basis, without any assurance that the actual results would meet our good intentions.
Timing is Everything! While investors can't time the market, we believe that this applies only to the long term. In the short-term (a couple of months) one can and should pick the right moment and the right entry point, based on his subjective-personal preferences, risk aversion and goals. Long-term, strategy/macro, investment decisions can't be timed while short-term, implementation/micro, investment decision, can!
When it comes to investments and trading we believe that the most important virtues are healthy common sense, general wisdom, sufficient research, vast experience, strive for excellence, ongoing willingness to learn, minimum ego, maximum patience, ability to withstand (enormous) pressure/s, strict discipline and a lot of luck!...
Summary
- The end of year rally has started for stocks, and we are still on track for a rare perfect score.
- Nonetheless, there's an asset that (based on history) might perform better over the next 10 days: Gold.
- Gold, stocks, or any other asset of choice, we wish you a merry, healthy, and wealthy year, both in and out of the markets.
The last 11 days of a calendar year (starting Dec. 21) have a better than 50% win rate.
That's the longest streak (of >50% win rate days) investors can find throughout an entire calendar year.
We can already tick the boxes of Dec. 21, 22, and 23 as green days.
Can the S&P 500 make a 10/10 till year-end? The technical answer is no, as there are only 5 trading days left in 2021, but we would happily take "only" 8/8...
But if you're looking for something else, aside of stocks, that is likely to perform quite well during this time of year, you might wish to give precious metals a shot.
Over the past decade, Gold (+1.6%) has performed better than Stocks (+0.6%) between Dec. 23 - Jan. 3.
Unlike the S&P 500 that already ticked 3 days (out of eight) this year, Gold has only ticked one day (yesterday) in the historical outperforming period that it "supposes" to go through.
- Using SPDR® S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and SPDR® Gold Shares (GLD) as proxies for S&P 500 and Gold, respectively; and
- Based on the ~0.4% difference in their performances yesterday (SPY +0.62%, GLD +0.23%); and
- If the historical outperformance of Gold over S&P 500 is about to materialize this year too;
One should expect any of the following from now until Jan. 3:
- S&P 500 to remain flat (already returned its average 0.6% for the period)
- Gold to add another 1.37% to average 1.6% return for the period
- Gold to return ~1.4% more than S&P 500, even if both rise or fall.
The Annual "Christmas Tree" stacking chart of historical annual returns for the S&P 500 is getting another, very nice, decoration this year.
Wishing you and yours Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.