Small-cap Biotech, Biotech Catalyst Plays
Contributor Since 2014
My six speculations were GALT, FLXN, CPRX, VSTM, OCUL, and AUPH. I wrote articles outlining each of these opportunities; except for GALT and FLXN which were just blog posts stating that they were currently worth buying as speculations.
GALT- 9% in 14 days
FLXN--21% in 65 days
CPRX--26% in 5 days
VSTM--24% in 3 days
OCUL--14% in 5 days
AUPH--42% in 6 days
--Returns have been calculated by assuming that a position was taken on the open of the day that the piece was published and sold on the close of the day that it hit my stated price target or, in the absence of that, the day before the data readout.
The results of my Long-term oriented articles:
CARA: The stock ran up 86% between the time of my first article and my second article. Also, I explained in my second article that I thought it was smart to lock in profits and thus reduced my position to only 25% of my original position.
AIMT: The stock is currently up a little over 69% since my first article.
GWPH: -- I didn’t suggest buying at these levels but rather I explained why I am still holding long even though I, at that point, was up 188% (I included a pic of my brokerage account since 188% is such a stellar return and thus a large claim)
TTNP: I articulated why the equity would struggle, and currently the stock is down a little over 50% since my article.
PLX: The stock is down since I wrote about it, but this is the type of little stock that you either make multiples of your money or it will go to zero. Thus, size your position accordingly and check back in a couple of years.
(Long-term is often seen as 5 years + but I focus on the fast-moving and highly volatile industry of small-cap biotech, so I consider long-term as 1 year or more)
My Style: I look for compelling speculations in the small/mid-cap space of the biotech industry. Each speculation has its own nuances and idiosyncratic risks that are associated with it. However, generally speaking, my speculating focuses on finding windows in time when probability favors appreciation, there’s solid visibility on the risks and possible outcomes, and a high reward to risk ratio is present. Furthermore, equity markets manipulate the emotional weaknesses of speculators. Thus, my entries/exists, and sizing of positions are decided on in a systematic fashion. Lastly, I believe that sound bankroll/risk management is the key to profitable speculation. Proper bankroll/risk management is what will allow you to overcome the randomness that is inherent in security speculation by allowing you to handle drawdowns from a negative sequence of returns.
Wisdom: “No man so wise that he may not easily err if he takes no other counsel than his own. He that is taught only by himself has a fool for a master”-Ben Johnson
"There is nothing so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irrational world"-John Maynard Keynes
"Amateurs care about how much they can make, but professionals care about how much they can lose"
I usually use my instablog to provide tools and research geared towards investing in the biotech industry, but today I'm bringing you something different. I have worked with a lot of product partners and below is a link to the three that I like the most for macro economic insights. Obviously, I use additional resources but the links below are a great place to start your discovery/research into the broader macro economic environment.
1. J.P. Morgan
2. Franklin Templeton
3. Goldman Sachs
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