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Is Crude Oil (WTI) Poised For An Upward Bounce?

|Includes: The United States Oil ETF, LP (USO)

Since the peak of June 2014, Crude Oil (NYSE:WTI) has plunged almost 30%. From a chart-technical point of view, Crude Oil has now reached the lower end of the price range of the last 3 years ($75 - $76 support). Based on historic price action during this period, the current bearish market sentiment and the fact that the 14-day Relative Strength Index has reached oversold levels, a (temporary) trend reversal (relief rally) could well be in the cards. Also, the clearly positive divergence visible between price and momentum (14-day RSI) shows the latest declines are not exactly robust (any more). However, in case of a decisive break of $75 key support, a further downward move towards $33 (former 2009 low) over the coming quarters can not be ruled out.

Finally, notice that the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility index has recently shown a clear expansion of volatility. Therefore, past years 'milder' times could well be followed by (even more) 'wilder' times ahead.