The answer, Not sure..
Last few months $OIL in a torrid decline from 103, after falling from highs around 107 twice, I missed calling the second move up to 107, expected index to go below 100, set target LIVE on twitter below 100 ----> 98 floor.
Short term, the format indicated 'strong ' expectancy of TREND down for black gold, then it reversed back to highs. Impossible to call them all right, but after 103 again, the pattern was set, strong indications for a prolonged Downtrend, after 98, consecutive targets 10 points and 14 points lower were set, both announced on LIVE forecast at twitter. Stated, below 74, there was no data in tools I use to project lower expectancy.
Last few days, even after two day reversal week prior, I refused to even look at index, and lumped it with trash $GLD and $SLV as eternal losers for this down cycle.
Russia's Putin 2 hour plus News Conference last week, potential catalyst for $OIL fall resolution. It is my belief that the move has strong Geopolitical undertones, with agreements at highest levels $OIL Cartel and US. Dangerous move unless you are prepared to go against a full war. That important is making Russia desist.
We all know the numbers Russia needs $OIL income, over 50% GDP is $OIL related, it cannot pay for imports without OIL revenues. So the pressure is on, it could backfire, dictators don't care for their people, sadly.
Price inelasticity can be the main Economic theme when analyzing $OIL, it goes against normal supply and demand typical economic analysis, so it is very hard to forecast.
Friday we got a REVERSAL on $OIL after two early days positive spurs, pointing to lack of sellers, it finally went up ~ 3%, the rest is Foam, lots of traders will reverse course and jump on TREND, important for Giant profits. In that league, there is no market direction or long TREND, just profits.
Question remains, is it long term, or just index exhausting after so much pressure down. Tools I use work on up moves, and we will analyze @CL.1 wti crude $OIL.
We will not use TA, Technical Analysis is history only, couple Oscillators and moving averages are a day behind, so it is impossible to use for forecast, it tells you what was only.
Linear Regression a probabilistic forecasting Model uses simple Regression to forecast future index moves using Arithmetic MEAN to place index at equidistant points of a resulting Regression line. It lost uptrend at 11/26/14 at 73.60, CLG5 used for analysis expiring next Feb 15.
Assuming reversal Friday, next points in Regression line will be same strong points hit on way down, 59.38 ------> 63.15, with a ceiling at 69.39. This LR period could last 4-6 weeks.
In the 50's chartists doing Bonds call them 'inflection points,' similar to TA resistance and support, they are magnets for index.. In a five day period index gave hints of Reversal 9 times, crossing Regression line, so we had 'advanced warning' of a big change in TREND.
On Month Chart, switch to uptrend occurred early during week, on first attempt up, 55.86 on 12/16/14. Index close to go back downtrend all day next day, it finally made move up Friday, you can follow all this on CNBC charts using upper indicator Linear Regression.
Going back to 5D chart, use line to see better, you will note index hit 59, up ~ 6.6% and ended day pointing DOWN, this is a strong TREND predictor, it tells TREND continuation 6PM Sunday when Commodity trading opens will be 'initially down.'
We then switch to another probabilistic forecasting Model, the founder Mr. Bollinger probably does not 'see' his Model future TREND predictor positions, he relies on upper and lower BANDS closeness to predict trend, and upper band 'touches.' Further research after incorporating his model to my daily forecast, points to several 'new observations' in TREND modeling.
Five day chart using B. Bands show a double touch upper band on WED after index 3 green volume bars that switched it to uptrend, followed by two nasty drops till THURS, note bands narrowed THURS projecting move up next.. This coupled with Putin's News conference gave indications of a big move up. The chart pattern at this point was very bullish, so forecast REVERSAL UP was given close to 4PM THURS, a gutsy move, specially LIVE to Twitter land, most SA ignores my posts, so far.
The late FRI downturn after hitting 59 using LR, was also confirmed in advance by B. Band on a double touch upper, normally precipitates big falls. You can back test Bollinger Bands for any period, you will see how bands narrow means UP, and how wider bands means DOWN next, also back test double touches upper band ~they precede DOWN. A very strong correlation confirms Mr. Bollinger's theory. A great mind; do not know him personally, just U Tube superb presentation.
CNBC charts provides standard SMA20 with Bollinger Bands, single MovAve. When introducing 200 day average, becomes predictive on lower Band crosses, similar to Devils crosses with 50&200 SMA. Marked difference, results could be up or down moves, depending on prior direction of lower band before crossing SMA200< new research, mine.
No SMA20 or SMA200 lower band crosses, it is left to Linear Regression to dictate moves after initial move down at open SUNDAY. This is a very complex area, several studies in UK and Spain on TREND predictive abilities of Oscillators and MovAve are presently ongoing in EU by friends, superb technicians.
Refer to Best world traders and analysts on Twitter, @Ted_Waller and @ElCidMarkets, Spain, @EdMatts and @Dax_daytrader U.K., @Hubon Swiss, my dear friend Chartist Norway @JohanHakon, Harmonics. Analyst @Sonaliranade India. All great teachers.
Would love to close this writing with exact trajectory of index in the future, but in reality, no one can predict the future, we get a small glimpse of the future once in a while, and if we are very lucky, we chose the right tools to use for finding TREND.
I do not trade $OIL or any commodity, stock, or index I forecast daily, except $DAX in Germany, off now, and by New Years, that will stop too. Finally transitioning hedges and Microtrading Models to Forex after exhaustive double blind 14 month study. Sleep!
Holidays coming are very special, whether Christian, Jewish, African, we as a world community must pray for everlasting peace, our children, our future, deserve more than that. Happy Holidays!
Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.