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Today's Technical Outlook-9/11/2012

Market Summary

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

A flat opening, and then continued narrow trade for most of the session. In the last two hours we saw sellers step into the arena and the averages sold off rather sharply into the close. At the close, the DJIA was off 52 points, the S&P lost 0.6%, and the Nasdaq100, the big loser, down 1.3%. Breadth was negative, 1.5 to 1, on average volume. RSI's dropped some and ROC(10's) while remaining positive, turned down. A bit of near term technical weakness slipped in at the close of the Market. We expected to possibly see more consolidation as Thursday's move of last week had not been completely digested. One concern is that the weakness showed up in the Nasdaq100, which has been the Market leader. It was the only index of the big three, to have its MACD remain below signal. The Nasdaq100 still held support of the 2784 level which was the spring closing high. We are looking for that level(2784) to provide support on the downside. The 2807 level would signify near term bias to the upside. Resistance, near term, is at 2825. The S&P also held its spring high and held the 1425 support level. The short term up-trending channel has its bottom near 1405 and top at 1450. The recent several sessions have been finding resistance right near the 1438 level. We will watch this for the near term, to see if resistance continues. The DJIA was the only major index unable to hold the spring highs, however, near term technical strength is still bullish. The VIX spiked 13.2%, to close at 16.28. This is one day, but must be monitored to see if a negative signal is developing. A bevy of economic reports begins tomorrow and we have an important ruling by the German courts this week. Futures are slightly higher this morning versus fair value.



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