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Today's Technical Analysis 1/10/2013

Market Summary

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

The indices broke out to the upside at the opening bell and continued in that direction for the first hour. Sellers took over after 10:30am and it was a slow drift downwards into the final bell. It was another session of narrow trade with minor gains at the close. At the close, the DJIA tacked on 0.4%, the S&P added just 3.8 points, and the Nasdaq100 was up 0.3%. Breadth was positive, 2.2 to 1, on below average volume. RSI's were up slightly and ROC(10's) advanced and remained positive. MACD's remained above signal. For several sessions, the major averages have traded in a very narrow range. The S&P had traded between 1451 and 1467 in the last 5 sessions. The Nasdaq100 in the last 6 sessions has traded between 2703-2750. The S&P continues within several points of its recent high and September 2012 high of 1465. We re-iterate the concern that the Nasdaq100 which has been the Market leader since 2009, is lagging the S&P. Perhaps it's time for a new leader to emerge and we would expect that the next several sessions may shed some light on this. The Nasdaq100 did close a couple points above 2725, which had been providing resistance. We see more formidable resistance in the 2750-2800 congestion area. Support now sets up at 2725 and 2712. Not much change in technicals for the S&P, as the September closing high of 1465 continues to provide near term resistance. Above 1465, we should see 1475 providing some resistance. Support continues to set up at 1450 and 1435. The VIX finally made a move to the upside, but it was a small 1.4% gain. Volatility remains extremely low. European markets are mixed this morning and little changed. European banks keep rates unchanged this morning. We get Claims numbers this morning and should begin to get a view of how employers are seeing their needs in the new year take shape. Futures are up slightly this morning versus fair value.

Major Economic Reports Today

Initial/Continuing Claims-8:30am NatGas Inv.-10:30am
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