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Today's Technical Outlook - 7/15/2013

Market Summary

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

The indices on Friday continued their march to new highs. They ended the day near their highs of the session, but with only small gains. The Nasdaq100 was the strongest of the averages as Techs held their strength through the session. The Nasdaq100 being the only index closing above its May intra-day high. At the close on Friday, the DJIA added 3.3 points, the S&P moved up 5.1 points, and the Nasdaq100 climbing 0.64%. Breadth, however, was slightly negative, on above average volume. For the week, the DJIA added 1.8%, the S&P moving up 3%, and the Nasdaq100 gaining 3.9%. After a brief 5.7% pullback in the S&P, the indices have resumed their march to the upside and are now making new highs again. RSI's are in the 60's, with the Nadaq100 at 71, moving into overbought territory. Technicals remain strong for all the major indices and the major averages are near the top of their Bollinger bands, or just slightly above. The IWM(Russell small cap ETF) has now made a new closing high for the sixth straight session. Small caps are now leading the move to the upside, and the Nasdaq100 has re-established its role as the leading index once gain. The VIX dropped another 1.2% to 13.84. Volatility is low once again. We can see further upside, should the indices hold these levels.

Trading Trends

David Chojnacki S1F Market Technician

Long term technicals continue to remain positive, as the indices make new highs. Short term technicals moved back to positive bias last week, as the indices moved out of a trading range and back into the uptrend channel started last November. With the S&P above 1650, we will remain in short term upside bias. Technicals are suggesting that the S&P will test the 1708 level and the Nasdaq100 will make push towards 3107. Near term, the strength of the last two weeks is beginning to move us close to over-bought territory. We may see some pullback after hitting the short term targets noted above. Earnings and economic reports fill the calendar this week. Overseas markets are up in early trade and so are our Futures.

MAJOR INDICES Short term support and resistance level

DJIA

close 15410

SP500

close 1680

N100

close 3079

15409

15500

1675

1687

3075

3088

15325

15542

1669

1700

3053

3100

15250

15600

1662

1708

3050

3107

15135

15721

1650

1712

3037

3112

15131

15750

1640

1725

3028

3125

15125

 

1637

1737

3025

3150

15064

 

1633

1750

3012

3175

15000

 

1625

 

3000

 
   

1624

 

2988

 

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TODAY'S DATE, UNLESS OTHERWISE INDICATED

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Major Economic Reports Today

Retail Sales-8:30am Empire Manufacturing-8:30am Business Inventories-10:00am